Friday, 22 June 2018

sell crude at cmp 4600

crude hourly 

As shown in the hourly chart, price reached 67.78 dollar mark. as per wave count and coil break out tgt, it should return back towards 62 dollars sooner or latter. So one can think shorting it. Mcx CMP p is 4600 INR. JAY Shriram.
Update 1, 01.027 IST, 25/06/18
crude hourly

Cmp of crude is 4700 INR or 68.83. We entered short at 67.70 or INR mcx 4600. our position is in loss of 1 dollar or Rs 100 mcx.
At the time of entering the short I thought that 5th sub wave of sub wave (B) will end at max 68.50 dollar mark, but after OPEC meeting huge short covering pushed 3rd sub sub wave of sub wave (B) 69 dollar mark, then downward 4th sub sub wave looking finished at the drawn mark in the chart. Now only last sub sub wave 5 remained, which can take price to max 71 or can end before that and then new C impulsive wave will start on downward. So hold this short position with patience for good profit. Jay Shriram.

Update 2, IST 01.30, 26th June.

This is a link from where I took this wave count on 2 hour chart. You can read analysis by visiting the website. My count is little different from this count.
Crude hourly.
Difference between first count & my count is that, I think the 5 the wave of sub wave ( c ) is over making a double top. In first count that expert predicts that the 4th corrective wave of ( c ) is ongoing, after finishing this wave new 5 the wave will take price towards 71 dollar's mark & that ll be end of major corrective wave B. Then impulsive wave C ll start on downside. 
Let's see what will happen . Jay Shriram.
Update 3, IST 08.22 pm, 26/06/18
crude hourly
I was wrong in calculating 4th wave of sub wave (c). consequently expected end of major wave B mismarked. Now it's clear that wave 4 of sub wave (c) ends at 67.75 and last 5th wave is going on, which can take price up to 70.70 ( max ). That will be end of major corrective wave B. Thereafter major impulsive wave C will start on downside. As a rule it should go below 63.40. Expected mark is 62.50 dollar's Jay Shriram.
Update 4 , 08.04 pm IST, 09/07/2018
Frankly speaking, my wave counts failed. I was not correct. Fundamental news like Iran sanction & big -9 inventory draw pushed wti price near dolor 75. I stucked in position. I have puts, which has very less value. only 7 trading days remained to expiry of contract on mcx. Steps taken by Trump and Opec are giving some hopes to escape but time remain very less. If I have futures shorted inspite of puts, I can roll it over. All is upon destiny now, Jay Shriram.
Update 5, last update, 7 pm IST, 13/07/2018
crude daily
Today I booked all the losses. Tuesday is expiry of the contract on mcx but today is tender day for options, so I sold all my puts at throw away price. Booked all losses.
As shown in the daily chart price has to come to kiss 65 dolor mark, it touched resistance line of the ascending broadening wedge, made coil and got downward breakout. It is making bear flag at the moment, so 65 is on the cards, but now that is useless for me. Jay Shriram.

Tuesday, 19 June 2018

sell NG

ng daily
As shown in the daily chart of Natural Gas futures, price made break out from the bear wedge. The wedge is not perfect but it can work. CMP mcs is 199 . Try to short it, 2.87 is the confirmation mark of the bearishness, it confirms that rally is over. Jay Shriram.
ng 4 hrs 
You can see in this 4 hrs chart that price break both the blue trendlines downwards. 5 times, price had taken support from 2.87 mark, which is shown in the red line. Jay Shriram.
update 1 , 08.13 IST, 21/06/ 18
ng daily
ng hourly 
As shown in the daily chart, price went downward after this post but took support and went up to 3.013 or mcx 204.50. Today is inventory day for ng and inventory is not bullish ... EIA Natural Gas Inventory: +91 Bcf vs. +85 Bcf consensus, +96 Bcf last week. so you can see in hourly chart, price moved in bear wedge for full day and break out downwards. This wedge is not fulfilling all the requisites of toching R line & S line but it is working with inventory which is favouring us . Let's hope for good. Jay Shriram.
update 2, 09.27 pm IST, 21/06/18
ng 4 hrs 
Look at this 4 hrs ng chart. Coil or symmetrical triangle is there. As requisites of the valid coil is 2 times touch to resistance line and 2 times to support line, this coil has 2 touchs of price to R line and 1 to S line, ongoing wave is downwards. So expect this coil to break downwards. This is very powerful pattern. Jay Shriram.
update 3 , 01.06 pm, 25/06/18
ng 4 hrs 
As shown in the NG 4 hrs chart, price consolidate in symmetrical triangle ( coil ) and made downward breakout. We are back in the profit in this positional short. coil is powerful pattern, very few times I saw a failure of this pattern but price can reverse back & touch S line of coil but that line will work as resistance line for the price because of the rule of polarity. so hold your short position for big gains. Once 5 time support of 2.87 will break, price will tumble down heavily. 
Thank you for visiting my blog, Jay Shriram.
update 4 , 09.00 IST, 26/06/18
There is some fundamental news about ng, which can drag down the price of the commodity. China may cut import of ng from U.S. The link is below   
China trade dispute threatens LNG exports from U.S., Total CEO says $TOT, $UNG, $UGAZ, $DGAZ, $BOIL, $KOLD, $UNL, $DCNG, $GAZB
Update 5, 08.00 IST, 09/07/2018
ng 4hrs
As shown in the the 4 hrs chart, ng price dropped after posting this post. In rupee term , we sold it around Rs 199 & made avg near 205 now it is howering around 195- 194. I booked my full profits and made exit from this trade. There are chances of downfall but I prefer to book profits. Enjoy , Jay Shriram.

Thursday, 14 June 2018

copper again in a bull wedge

copper hourly

copper 4 hrs 
As you can see in the hourly and 4 hourly charts, copper price is moving in a bull or falling wedge. which is one of the bullish pattern on which we can depend on. Either you can buy at cmp 3.222 , mcx 381.90 or wait for breakout. Your choice. Maintain sl below the support line of the wedge. Jay Shriram.
Update 15/06/2018
My pattern failed, prediction failed. Feeling sorry about that. Jay Shriram.

Wednesday, 13 June 2018

Copper hourly .... bull wedge

copper hourly cfd 
As shown in the hourly chart of copper, price is moving in a descending red channel. You can see a falling wedge which is also called as a bull wedge in a black color. this bull wedge pattern is one of the powerful pattern. Trade with confidence, go for long after breakout of the price from bull wedge for the tgt of resistance line of the red channel. There is chance that price turn downward after taking resistance from wedge resistance line and kiss supportline again. But keep in mind that after touching the supportline of the wedge price will again turn upward. Best strategy is to enter in position only after breakout from bull wedge. Jay Shriram.
Update first 13/06/18, 06.16 pm ist
crude hourly 
Here is the bull wedge breakout on hourly chart. Happened as expected. Enjoy the trade with traling sl. Jay shriram.
Update 3,  11.30 ist 14/06/18
copper hourly 
Hope you booked profits using trailing sl method as suggested. Enjoy, Jay Shriram.

Thursday, 7 June 2018

crude 4 hrs .... pre matured upward breakout

pre matured upward breakout

crude 4 hrs 
As shown in the crude nymex 4 hrs chart, price made it's breakout from the bull weadge at pre matured stage. As a rule of polarity , now R line of the wedge will work as support line and tgt is 68 dolors which is prior high. Let's watch it.
Update 1 -- 11/06/18, 9.00 pm ist
crude 4 hrs 
I adjust bull wedge but tgt is intact. Now you can see something like coil in blue lines. I am saying this as something because this is not perfect coil but still it can work. Let's see.
update 2 , 9.15 pm ist
crude 4 hrs 
This is perfect coil, if break upwards should touch 68 mark in no time.
update 3, 07.17 ist, 14/06/18
crude 4 hrs 
crude price made high of 67.17 dolors, facing resistance from wedge R line, better is to book all profits on long and exit. Our tgt of 68 dolor's is just 80 cent away so no need to take risk.
Enjoy the profits , Jay Shriram.

crude ... coil break out

Crude hourly 
As you can see in hourly chart of nymex crude, price has came out of coil. Made good breakout. It is hourly chart so first tgt is prior high of 66 dolors. Cmp is 65.30, place sl at 65 dolors. If break resistance on upside then it can fly upto 68 dolors. 
Thank you , Jay shriram. 
09.10 Update.... Target of 66 dolor's hit. I ll upload chart latter. Jay Shriram.
crude hourly 
Now you can easily see that within 3 hours our first tgt hit. Net profit of 70 cents. In INR it is 45 points. Again reminding you that , if price sustained above 66 dolor mark, it ll fly up to 68 dolor.

Friday, 19 January 2018

copper in bullish mode

03.00 pm IST
copper hourly chart

copper 4 hour

Good afternoon friend's. As shown in the first hourly chart of copper, price broke channel resistance line and sustained upward. Second pattern is ascending triangle pattern, which is drawn in red color. copper price made it's breakout from that pattern also. As a result 3.276 is the first tgt on hourly chart. There is no resistance from prior high's till mentioned point on hourly chart.
     Now look at another chart, soucer pattern is drawn in black color and you can see that the price made its breakout from the neckline of the soucer. so next tgt is 3.291 on 4 hour chart.
    Caution -- On 4 hour chart, there are chances that price will come down and convert the soucer pattern in to cup and handle. In that situation we will have to hold the position for more days.
     In INR for mcx tgt ll be 461 and sl is 449, cmp is 454.30. Jay Shriram.