As shown in the hourly chart, price reached 67.78 dollar mark. as per wave count and coil break out tgt, it should return back towards 62 dollars sooner or latter. So one can think shorting it. Mcx CMP p is 4600 INR. JAY Shriram.
Update 1, 01.027 IST, 25/06/18
Cmp of crude is 4700 INR or 68.83. We entered short at 67.70 or INR mcx 4600. our position is in loss of 1 dollar or Rs 100 mcx.
At the time of entering the short I thought that 5th sub wave of sub wave (B) will end at max 68.50 dollar mark, but after OPEC meeting huge short covering pushed 3rd sub sub wave of sub wave (B) 69 dollar mark, then downward 4th sub sub wave looking finished at the drawn mark in the chart. Now only last sub sub wave 5 remained, which can take price to max 71 or can end before that and then new C impulsive wave will start on downward. So hold this short position with patience for good profit. Jay Shriram.
Update 2, IST 01.30, 26th June.
This is a link from where I took this wave count on 2 hour chart. You can read analysis by visiting the website. My count is little different from this count.
Difference between first count & my count is that, I think the 5 the wave of sub wave ( c ) is over making a double top. In first count that expert predicts that the 4th corrective wave of ( c ) is ongoing, after finishing this wave new 5 the wave will take price towards 71 dollar's mark & that ll be end of major corrective wave B. Then impulsive wave C ll start on downside.
Let's see what will happen . Jay Shriram.
Update 3, IST 08.22 pm, 26/06/18
I was wrong in calculating 4th wave of sub wave (c). consequently expected end of major wave B mismarked. Now it's clear that wave 4 of sub wave (c) ends at 67.75 and last 5th wave is going on, which can take price up to 70.70 ( max ). That will be end of major corrective wave B. Thereafter major impulsive wave C will start on downside. As a rule it should go below 63.40. Expected mark is 62.50 dollar's Jay Shriram.
Update 4 , 08.04 pm IST, 09/07/2018
Frankly speaking, my wave counts failed. I was not correct. Fundamental news like Iran sanction & big -9 inventory draw pushed wti price near dolor 75. I stucked in position. I have puts, which has very less value. only 7 trading days remained to expiry of contract on mcx. Steps taken by Trump and Opec are giving some hopes to escape but time remain very less. If I have futures shorted inspite of puts, I can roll it over. All is upon destiny now, Jay Shriram.
Update 5, last update, 7 pm IST, 13/07/2018
Today I booked all the losses. Tuesday is expiry of the contract on mcx but today is tender day for options, so I sold all my puts at throw away price. Booked all losses.
As shown in the daily chart price has to come to kiss 65 dolor mark, it touched resistance line of the ascending broadening wedge, made coil and got downward breakout. It is making bear flag at the moment, so 65 is on the cards, but now that is useless for me. Jay Shriram.