Monday 10 July 2023

NG .. Cup & Handle pattern

   Cup & Handle pattern

10/07/2023, 12.16 PM IST

ng mcx 3 hrs chart 
As shown in the chart of NG, price is making cup & handle pattern from middle of May month. Now it made bull wedge in the form of Handle of the cup, which is our main patten. as a texxt book rule price touched 4 times to support line & resistance line of the bull wedge. Now last wave upward is going on . somewhere around 225, price will breakout from wedge and shoot up towards 240 as a target of bull wedge. But after hitting the target of bull wedge it is at the point of breakout line of cup & handle pattern . Target of this pattern is 50 rupees which will take price towards 290. 
This is positional trade . Think upon it . Jay Shriram.

Update 1
10th July 2023,
02.57 PM
Ng 4 hrs chart

Now price is moving between 221-222. Book half profit @ 221.50 & trail stop loss to 215.50. Now we have nothing to loose. Enjoy. Jay Shriram.

Update 2 .. 12/07/2023, 11:37 AM IST
As marked in the chart, yesterday NG price broke out from Bull Wedge and sustain above it. It can retest resistance line of the wedge and shoot up towards 240 mark as a target of bull wedge which is handle of the cup & handle pattern. CMP is 225 & we bought the long around 218. Now we can trail sl to ctc. 
Jay Shriram







Tuesday 4 July 2023

Nifty @ top ?

 4th July 2023,


Today's ongoing daily candle is making hammer at top. It will confirm at closing today but last four candles made Sanku candlestick pattern which is rare pattern but indicates trend reversal in very near future. Same time RSI entered in overbought zone on daily chart. 
So one can think to short the index with positional view. Price is ticking @ 19385 . 
Thanks... Jay Shriram 

Update.... 1
03.50 P.M
Market is closed. Nifty closed exactly where we shorted it. No gain or loss today. Let's see what will happen tomorrow. On hourly chart nifty closed making rsi divergence as shown in hourly chart  below .



Catching exact high or low require utmost skill & money management. If you have lack of those skills then you are flying in the plane with no control over it.


Update 3,
7th July 2023,
03.23 P.M
Book half profit near 19300 nifty spot & trail stop @ 19470. Now we have nothing to loose. Enjoy.


Update 4 ... 12/07/2023, 12:00 pm IST
Already we booked profits and trailing sl is triggered now we can talk upon this pattern.
Known by the Japanese word sanku, the Three Gaps candlestick pattern contains (surprise, surprise!) three distinct gaps. Although there are two different versions of the signal (one bearish, one bullish), today we’re focusing on the Three Gaps Up pattern, which looks like a small staircase with gaps between some of the gangly stairs. This strong, defined upward trend may indicate that a reversal is on the way. 

The Three Gaps Up pattern plays out over four or more days, and the signal is quite unique in its flexibility, as the three gaps do not need to be consecutive. If you believe that you have spotted the Three Gaps Up pattern, look for the following criteria:

First, a well-defined upward trend must be in progress. Secondthere must be three gaps (hence the name) within the uptrend. A gap, by the way, is an unfilled space or interval between the bodies of two candlesticks, and it indicates that no trading has occurred during that window of time.

That’s it! That’s all there is to it. Ideally, however, the gaps will be close together and the candles will all be white. The image above shows a lovely example in which the three gaps are consecutive and all four candles are bullish.

Like many candlestick patterns, the Three Gaps Up has a similar but opposing brother: the Three Gaps Down candlestick pattern. Both signals contain at least four candles and three gaps and herald a change in trend, but the Three Gaps Down signal moves downward while the Three Gaps Up signal moves (you guessed it!) upward.

So what does this all mean? Well, for three days the bulls are in control, and the price flies upward, gapping between sessions. The market is overbought, and exhaustion is inevitable. After all that climbing, the market will likely reverse, allowing the bears to take the reins. Thus, when you have spotted all three gaps, you can safely assume that a reversal is on the horizon.

To improve the Three Gaps Up pattern’s reliability, don’t rely solely on it. Instead, combine it with other technical indicators that point to the same conclusion. RSI diversion can be used .

Finally, any trader worth his or her salt knows how crucial it is to check for confirmation before pressing onward. So if you spot the Three Gaps Up pattern, look for the price to fall, reaching at least the midpoint of the last white body, to confirm the trend’s reversal. If it fills the last gap, you can be certain a reversal has occurred. Jay Shriram.


Tuesday 1 November 2022

Crude upmove on cards

 

As shown by red trendlines, price made lower low but RSI made higher low. Bullish divergence is there. Minimum one dolor upmove can be expected. Jay Shriram. 

Update 1st November
Now we are in the profit of more than one dolor. Book
partial profit & trail Stop loss cost to cost. We bought long @ 86.55 & CMP is 87.71. Enjoy 

Jay Shriram 

Update

Book full profit & exit. High made 88.25



Friday 24 September 2021

Difference between trading & speculation

I wrote a shlok ( line ) from hindu holy book "Geeta" below the name of my blog which is in Sanskrit language. That line defines the difference between trading & speculation. 

Generally majority


of traders enters in a trade for profit. When you do a trade for profit ... you can be winner or looser. Both sides are open for you. This ambiguity make that trade speculation. Same rule apply to other professions also. Wherever you don't know the outcome of the trade or work but same time you expect win from such act ... That is speculation & nothing else. If you trade using particular chart pattern breakout or using some indicator signal or anything else, that can't turn this speculation in to trading because there is no guarantee of getting money out of that particular trade. Think upon this. If agree ... then read next paragraph. 

Now question arises ... how can we shift from speculation to trading ? You can't become a trader until you left the habit of taking separate trades & expecting profits from each & every trade. H.H.Lord.Krishna said," who play's for win will get win & failure both". This is inevitable. 

Algorithm is answer to this problem. Choose any chart pattern or indicator or combination of indicators you like. Study deeply about their success ratios. You can get more loss making trades than profitable trades in a whole year but calculate profit & loss also. If your signal system is not bad then you can see good profit at the end of the year. Profit making trades are big and loss making trades are little. Apply that set up on chart & do backtesting manually on charts . Multi-year manual backtesting is essential. It can take 2 to 3 months of hard work but it will make you sure about earning money. Never use computerised system for backtesting. Each & every trade should be taken. 

Now you are trading not for winning the trade but because there is a signal to enter the particular trade & you have to follow orders of that signal.  You expect nothing ( profit  / loss ) from that particular trade. You are sure about your profit at the end of the year or 6 months etc. Now you are doing long short long short in same instrument in same quantity with good funds for loss. This is trading.

There is very thin wall between trading & speculation. Hope you can understand this article. There is lot to say but I think that ... readers want tips, calls etc. They will not like such basics. 


Sunday 3 March 2019

NG bounced from multiyear support

3rd March 2019,
02.30 IST.
NG Future w CFD
     As shown in the charts with digits 1 to 6, NG price took support on that supportline on 6 occasions in last 3 years and bounce back. Just before 2 weeks it touched the multiyear support line and turned upward. So I think it is good chance to enter a long trade. This trade can take its own time because this chart is on weekly time frame. Stop Loss should be placed below support line. For MCX that support line is now placed at RS 185, so you can place stoploss below that mark. In the past that level placed around Rs 165 but weakening of Indian Rupee against U.S dolor placed it around Rs 185 now. MCX CMP is Rs 203.
   Do your proper research and think about it, Jay Shriram.   

Update 1, 29th May 2019

   ng weekly 
      As shown in the weekly chart of NG, price again took support from multiyear support line. Actually it breached this line with exponential leg near the mark '' 7 '' . But that was because of sl triggered in large quantity. I am still holding my long position. Made average at lower levels with big quantity. Now I have average cost of Rs 190 MCX India. 
     Lot of patience needed to make profits from Ng. Nearly 3 months are passed holding this bet. But one should acknowledge that NG is play of fundamentals. Supportline on weekly chart shows the price level, where demand from power plants and other users increase & producers feel less happy to produce more. So impact of this will turn price upward again. One should read an article by HFIR energy on seeking alpha. Here is the link .....  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4266894-natural-gas-lower-prices-cure-lower-prices
     Cmp on mcx India is 182 & I am happily holding my long position. Thanking you, Jay Shriram. 

 

Thursday 10 January 2019

Zinc in a downward trend

     As shown in the hourly chart of zinc, price came out of bear wedge. It should drop down as soon as it got break out from the support line of the bear wedge but because of the fundamental news about Trump - China , price hover at higher levels. It threatens lot about violating wedge pattern but finally it starts its journey to right direction which is downwards.
     CMP is 2526 and on MCX India it is quoting Rs 175. I shorted it already. 
     Jay Shriram. 
Update first, 10.15 pm IST
zinc hourly
     Posted zinc hourly chart is showing mirror image. Price rose in ascending wedge chart pattern. after breakout from wedge it hover horizontally for 8 hours and start falling. But amazing fact is that , price is falling in mirror pattern. You can see mirror image of left hand rising ( bear ) wedge to your right hand and price is respecting both support line and resistance line of it. Amazing live show is going on in zinc hourly chart and same time mirror pattern is going on in gold 15 min chart. I posted it on my twitter handle. To get such timely updates , follow me on twitter.
     Important thing is that our position is in profit, but price is not falling vertically, it is going down making lower high lower low. It will take its time to go down and I hav lot of patience to wait. that's it at this moment. Jay Shriram.


Monday 7 January 2019

Bear wedge beakout on Gold hourly

gold hourly
     As shown in the hourly chart of gold, you can see price came out of bear wedge giving a valid down ward breakout. So I sold gold at 1290.27 and on MCX India 5 Feb contract on Rs 31,645.
     Price took resistance from 78 % fib level and return downward. It may be correction or just a pull back. I don't care about that. I want little money from this trade set up and thats it.
     Jay Shriram.
First updae 01.06 pm IST
gold hourly 
     MCX India gold 05 Feb contract price is Rs 31570 and $ 1283 on CFD. We have now 75 rupees profit, so book half the profit and trail your stoploss.
     As you can see price broke out from bear wedge yesterday and fall vertically till 50 % fib level. Took support there for 8 hours ( 8 candles ) and fall again. Price is resting on last fib support of 23 % now. Lets see, what will happen. Now we book half of the profit and using trailing sl method to protect remained profit. So guys, we have nothing to loose. So enjoy the scene chatting Jay Shriram.