NG .. Cup & Handle pattern

   Cup & Handle pattern

10/07/2023, 12.16 PM IST

ng mcx 3 hrs chart 

As shown in the chart of NG, price is making cup & handle pattern from middle of May month. Now it made bull wedge in the form of Handle of the cup, which is our main patten. as a texxt book rule price touched 4 times to support line & resistance line of the bull wedge. Now last wave upward is going on . somewhere around 225, price will breakout from wedge and shoot up towards 240 as a target of bull wedge. But after hitting the target of bull wedge it is at the point of breakout line of cup & handle pattern . Target of this pattern is 50 rupees which will take price towards 290. 

This is positional trade . Think upon it . Jay Shriram.

Update 1

10th July 2023,

02.57 PM

Ng 4 hrs chart

Now price is moving between 221-222. Book half profit @ 221.50 & trail stop loss to 215.50. Now we have nothing to loose. Enjoy. Jay Shriram.

Update 2 .. 12/07/2023, 11:37 AM IST

As marked in the chart, yesterday NG price broke out from Bull Wedge and sustain above it. It can retest resistance line of the wedge and shoot up towards 240 mark as a target of bull wedge which is handle of the cup & handle pattern. CMP is 225 & we bought the long around 218. Now we can trail sl to ctc. 

Jay Shriram

NG - Bearish Harami is developing

Bearish Harami is developing on NG daily chart.

7th Mar 2017, 07.00 pm

You can see a large green bullish candle showing yesterdays price movement of NG. Last little red candle is showing today's price movement. Yesterday high was around 197 and low was around 188. Today's high low is 193 and 189 around. 

Price is gapped down today. today it opened at 193 while yesterday close was 196. This gap down opening is important aspect for creating bearish harami. Till this moment NG price is unable to move higher in respect of yesterdays green candle. This again confirm that, bearish harami is developing. 

Ng is fundamentally very sensitive to weather forecast, something like snow storm is on the cards. But is is factored in.

One can think about all this and take decision. Thank you.

Update 2, 9th Mar 2017, 11.59 am,

One of my blog reader Mrs Madhuri Yadav sent me this chart and some writing. It is very correct that, before bearish harami candles appear on the chart, there was a doji. Read what she says.

Bearish reversal patterns can form with one or more candlesticks; most require bearish confirmation. The actual reversal indicates that selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure for one or more days, but it remains unclear whether or not sustained selling or lack of buyers will continue to push prices lower. Without confirmation, many of these patterns would be considered neutral and merely indicate a potential resistancelevel at best. Bearish confirmation means further downside follow through, such as a gap down, long black candlestick or high volume decline. Because candlestick patterns are short-term and usually effective for 1-2 weeks, bearish confirmation should come within 1-3 days.

update 3, 9th March , 12.17 pm
it is interesting to see the fight between bulls and bears. Winter season ends but still bulls are in hope that gas demand will pick up. The are taking support from weather forecast published on 7th march, which indicates some snowfall and little storm somewhere in North East America.But price action shows that any upward movement in NG price cant sustain at high, soon it tumble down. How many times this can happen ?? Or bulls are expecting new big rally is going to start? New storage season is started. 

Shorting NG is work of cool minded guy. Need lot of patience to earn from NG.
Nothing to say more, today is Thursday and there will be lot of volatility at evening because of data.
thanking you, Jay Shriram.

Todays commodity view

Todays commodity view, 13 th Feb 2017, 12.12 pm

Remember these are only views & not calls as I am not intraday trader. I hate intraday view.

Crude -- cmp 3600, bullish with support of 3540, can go towards 3700.

Copper --- cmp is 414, gap on hourly chart between 408 to 412, bullish, one can buy near 408 -- 409.

Ng -- cmp is 200, bearish view, very near to our tgt of previous NG call

Natural Gas

Enter new short position in NG. Positional trade. Expected tgt 190.
Update 1 -- 23 jan 2017, 11.42 am , cmp is 217, wait for the given tgt of 190.
Update 2 -- 31 jan 2017, 03.44 pm , 

After so many up & downs, finally we are in profit. As shown in the chart with blue color arrow, we enter in short position between Rs 228 -- 224. Now we are in new contract & latest price of NG is 216. If we take Rs 224 as shorting price, ( which is lowest price of the day on which we enter the trade ) we have 6 points of profit in our hand. But I suggest you to wait for tgt. Thank you. I am predicting that after breaking 212 on downside, NG will touch our tgt of 190 within few hours. 

update 3 --  see the chart below. NG is @ 213. Our shorting price is between 228 -- 224. we are in more than 10 points profit, that means if we sold a single lot, then we have more than Rs 12,500 in our hand now. I suggest to wait for tgt of Rs 190. After breaching 212 mark NG should tumble down to Rs 190 in no time. 

Update 4 - 3/2/2017,  01.57 pm

See the magic of dow theory. Lower tops & lower highs. If the price go below 2nd low of 210.50 and stay there for a while , then it will tumble down very very fast. I suggest to hold the short position for the prior mentioned tgt of 190. Jay shriram.

Update 5, 8th Feb 2017, 05.02 pm

NG Price should go to touch 202. It has support there, otherwise it is in downtrend. Yes we are in a short position since last 20 days, but we are in a good profit also. Look @ the chart study.

update 6, 10/02/2017, 06.27 pm,

Look @ the chart given below, NG price is trading on support line of 202, if it break it, then its good for us. But if it take support then it will bounce back, so keep the sl of 206 for our profitmaking short position. thank you.

Update 7 -- 13th Feb 2017, 12.27 pm

Cmp of NG is Rs 200 around. We entered short 24 days ago. Now we have 24 to 28 points profit in hand, that means more than Rs 30000 profit in single lot.

Book all the profit & exit the trade. Jay Shriram. Trade closed.

call of the week - NG - 7th Aug 2016

           Call of the week - NG - 7th aug 2016

Figure 1 -- NG hourly

Figure 2 - NG hourly with trendline

Figure 3 -- NG symmetrical on hourly 

Go long on NG @ cmp 186 around, short term trades hould keep sl 182.50 for the tgt of 192 around. For positional traders sl is placed @ 178.50 for the tgt 1 -- 192, tgt 2 --- 197, tgt 3 ---- 200 + and much more.

Now lokk @ the chart very carefully, it looks bearish and only bearish at first sight. Now look at second chart & you can see that price is taking support at trendline ( indicated in circles ) & by doing so price is making higher bottoms. This clearly indicates that bears are not confident about much deeper fall. Actually Ng is sensitive to weather reports on demand side and inventory data on supply side. Both fronts are now in favour of bulls. First time in last one year, storage growth turns negative. Since last 3 weeks inventory data is showing reducing supply. But Most of world is not responded this in good way. I belive that NG is underpriced commodity. This is because, in last full year, each and every time NG tried to go up , finally it failed. But this time there is fundamental change in demand supply side.

I request , please dont enter in NG trade , if you are very short term trader or habitual of buying huge positions. Ng trading is for positional traders and jobbers only. Buy little position with big sl, keep 15 day timeframe in mind. I feel that, coming Thursday will inventory data will push NG upward , above resistance of 197 to 200.  For more fundamental info, visit following link ...   http://in.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-dropped-to-close-at-191-200146220
And last chart is showing that, Ng price is about to end the process of symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern indicates continuation of trend & as wee know that the trend is positive. This pattern is fulfilled all the requirement to be a symmetrical triangle, touched 2 times to resistance line, 2 times to support line. Made 2 times lower tops and higher bottoms. So it is perfect case of symmetrical triangle. To know more about it, type symmetrical triangle or coil on google and click.
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Update of post 

To read latest update on demand supply estimates & prediction of inventory, you can visit following link. The article is written by Robert Boslego , he is wel known energy guy.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3996966-natural-gas-storage-weekly-estimation-errors

Update 1 > 8th Aug 2016, 01.26 Pm

Today NG opened @ 184.50, as a result our buy price is same. Cmp is around 183.60, short term traders should keep sl @ 182.50, for positional traders sl is placed @ 178.50. Thank you 

Update 2 > 8th Aug 2016

Read latest report on demand supply by reuters commodities on following link.    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-natgas-kemp-column-idUSKCN10J0HR?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
                                   Update 3 -- 11 pm 8th Aug
We are exact @ the same place from where we start this trade. cmp is 184 around. We entered the long around 184.50. Remember I warned in original post ( in red colored ) that," NG trading is not for short term traders. Volatility ate short term traders sl. Low is 181.40 & high is 185. Carry on position, as thursday will come near &  near bears cut their short positions. Keep in mind that, you should have to hold this trade for many days. Otherwise exit from this trade @ cmp , which around our cost.
                                       Update 4 -- 09.05 Pm Aug 9th
Sl hit, trade closed. Loss of 6 points in this trade. Sorry for that.

Flag chart pattern on NG hourly chart

Flag pattern on NG hourly chart

As seen in the chart, there is flag pattern developed. In this case the trend is expected to continue when the price moves above the upper trendline. No need to say that, " it is bullish pattern or continuation of the trend."  

Update 1, 09.09 pm ( India )

As seen in this chart, there is length of flagpole shown, which is around Rs 14. As a rule of flag pattern , flag top + flagpole length = 207. So this pattern shows the tgt of Rs 207.

Keep in mind that NG is too much risky commodity to trade.