Monday, 10 July 2023

NG .. Cup & Handle pattern

   Cup & Handle pattern

10/07/2023, 12.16 PM IST

ng mcx 3 hrs chart 
As shown in the chart of NG, price is making cup & handle pattern from middle of May month. Now it made bull wedge in the form of Handle of the cup, which is our main patten. as a texxt book rule price touched 4 times to support line & resistance line of the bull wedge. Now last wave upward is going on . somewhere around 225, price will breakout from wedge and shoot up towards 240 as a target of bull wedge. But after hitting the target of bull wedge it is at the point of breakout line of cup & handle pattern . Target of this pattern is 50 rupees which will take price towards 290. 
This is positional trade . Think upon it . Jay Shriram.

Update 1
10th July 2023,
02.57 PM
Ng 4 hrs chart

Now price is moving between 221-222. Book half profit @ 221.50 & trail stop loss to 215.50. Now we have nothing to loose. Enjoy. Jay Shriram.

Update 2 .. 12/07/2023, 11:37 AM IST
As marked in the chart, yesterday NG price broke out from Bull Wedge and sustain above it. It can retest resistance line of the wedge and shoot up towards 240 mark as a target of bull wedge which is handle of the cup & handle pattern. CMP is 225 & we bought the long around 218. Now we can trail sl to ctc. 
Jay Shriram







Tuesday, 4 July 2023

Nifty @ top ?

 4th July 2023,


Today's ongoing daily candle is making hammer at top. It will confirm at closing today but last four candles made Sanku candlestick pattern which is rare pattern but indicates trend reversal in very near future. Same time RSI entered in overbought zone on daily chart. 
So one can think to short the index with positional view. Price is ticking @ 19385 . 
Thanks... Jay Shriram 

Update.... 1
03.50 P.M
Market is closed. Nifty closed exactly where we shorted it. No gain or loss today. Let's see what will happen tomorrow. On hourly chart nifty closed making rsi divergence as shown in hourly chart  below .



Catching exact high or low require utmost skill & money management. If you have lack of those skills then you are flying in the plane with no control over it.


Update 3,
7th July 2023,
03.23 P.M
Book half profit near 19300 nifty spot & trail stop @ 19470. Now we have nothing to loose. Enjoy.


Update 4 ... 12/07/2023, 12:00 pm IST
Already we booked profits and trailing sl is triggered now we can talk upon this pattern.
Known by the Japanese word sanku, the Three Gaps candlestick pattern contains (surprise, surprise!) three distinct gaps. Although there are two different versions of the signal (one bearish, one bullish), today we’re focusing on the Three Gaps Up pattern, which looks like a small staircase with gaps between some of the gangly stairs. This strong, defined upward trend may indicate that a reversal is on the way. 

The Three Gaps Up pattern plays out over four or more days, and the signal is quite unique in its flexibility, as the three gaps do not need to be consecutive. If you believe that you have spotted the Three Gaps Up pattern, look for the following criteria:

First, a well-defined upward trend must be in progress. Second, there must be three gaps (hence the name) within the uptrend. A gap, by the way, is an unfilled space or interval between the bodies of two candlesticks, and it indicates that no trading has occurred during that window of time.

That’s it! That’s all there is to it. Ideally, however, the gaps will be close together and the candles will all be white. The image above shows a lovely example in which the three gaps are consecutive and all four candles are bullish.

Like many candlestick patterns, the Three Gaps Up has a similar but opposing brother: the Three Gaps Down candlestick pattern. Both signals contain at least four candles and three gaps and herald a change in trend, but the Three Gaps Down signal moves downward while the Three Gaps Up signal moves (you guessed it!) upward.

So what does this all mean? Well, for three days the bulls are in control, and the price flies upward, gapping between sessions. The market is overbought, and exhaustion is inevitable. After all that climbing, the market will likely reverse, allowing the bears to take the reins. Thus, when you have spotted all three gaps, you can safely assume that a reversal is on the horizon.

To improve the Three Gaps Up pattern’s reliability, don’t rely solely on it. Instead, combine it with other technical indicators that point to the same conclusion. RSI diversion can be used .

Finally, any trader worth his or her salt knows how crucial it is to check for confirmation before pressing onward. So if you spot the Three Gaps Up pattern, look for the price to fall, reaching at least the midpoint of the last white body, to confirm the trend’s reversal. If it fills the last gap, you can be certain a reversal has occurred. Jay Shriram.


Tuesday, 1 November 2022

Crude upmove on cards

 

As shown by red trendlines, price made lower low but RSI made higher low. Bullish divergence is there. Minimum one dolor upmove can be expected. Jay Shriram. 

Update 1st November
Now we are in the profit of more than one dolor. Book
partial profit & trail Stop loss cost to cost. We bought long @ 86.55 & CMP is 87.71. Enjoy 

Jay Shriram 

Update

Book full profit & exit. High made 88.25



Friday, 24 September 2021

Difference between trading & speculation

I wrote a shlok ( line ) from hindu holy book "Geeta" below the name of my blog which is in Sanskrit language. That line defines the difference between trading & speculation. 

Generally majority


of traders enters in a trade for profit. When you do a trade for profit ... you can be winner or looser. Both sides are open for you. This ambiguity make that trade speculation. Same rule apply to other professions also. Wherever you don't know the outcome of the trade or work but same time you expect win from such act ... That is speculation & nothing else. If you trade using particular chart pattern breakout or using some indicator signal or anything else, that can't turn this speculation in to trading because there is no guarantee of getting money out of that particular trade. Think upon this. If agree ... then read next paragraph. 

Now question arises ... how can we shift from speculation to trading ? You can't become a trader until you left the habit of taking separate trades & expecting profits from each & every trade. H.H.Lord.Krishna said," who play's for win will get win & failure both". This is inevitable. 

Algorithm is answer to this problem. Choose any chart pattern or indicator or combination of indicators you like. Study deeply about their success ratios. You can get more loss making trades than profitable trades in a whole year but calculate profit & loss also. If your signal system is not bad then you can see good profit at the end of the year. Profit making trades are big and loss making trades are little. Apply that set up on chart & do backtesting manually on charts . Multi-year manual backtesting is essential. It can take 2 to 3 months of hard work but it will make you sure about earning money. Never use computerised system for backtesting. Each & every trade should be taken. 

Now you are trading not for winning the trade but because there is a signal to enter the particular trade & you have to follow orders of that signal.  You expect nothing ( profit  / loss ) from that particular trade. You are sure about your profit at the end of the year or 6 months etc. Now you are doing long short long short in same instrument in same quantity with good funds for loss. This is trading.

There is very thin wall between trading & speculation. Hope you can understand this article. There is lot to say but I think that ... readers want tips, calls etc. They will not like such basics. 


Sunday, 3 March 2019

NG bounced from multiyear support

3rd March 2019,
02.30 IST.
NG Future w CFD
     As shown in the charts with digits 1 to 6, NG price took support on that supportline on 6 occasions in last 3 years and bounce back. Just before 2 weeks it touched the multiyear support line and turned upward. So I think it is good chance to enter a long trade. This trade can take its own time because this chart is on weekly time frame. Stop Loss should be placed below support line. For MCX that support line is now placed at RS 185, so you can place stoploss below that mark. In the past that level placed around Rs 165 but weakening of Indian Rupee against U.S dolor placed it around Rs 185 now. MCX CMP is Rs 203.
   Do your proper research and think about it, Jay Shriram.   

Update 1, 29th May 2019

   ng weekly 
      As shown in the weekly chart of NG, price again took support from multiyear support line. Actually it breached this line with exponential leg near the mark '' 7 '' . But that was because of sl triggered in large quantity. I am still holding my long position. Made average at lower levels with big quantity. Now I have average cost of Rs 190 MCX India. 
     Lot of patience needed to make profits from Ng. Nearly 3 months are passed holding this bet. But one should acknowledge that NG is play of fundamentals. Supportline on weekly chart shows the price level, where demand from power plants and other users increase & producers feel less happy to produce more. So impact of this will turn price upward again. One should read an article by HFIR energy on seeking alpha. Here is the link .....  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4266894-natural-gas-lower-prices-cure-lower-prices
     Cmp on mcx India is 182 & I am happily holding my long position. Thanking you, Jay Shriram. 

 

Thursday, 10 January 2019

Zinc in a downward trend

     As shown in the hourly chart of zinc, price came out of bear wedge. It should drop down as soon as it got break out from the support line of the bear wedge but because of the fundamental news about Trump - China , price hover at higher levels. It threatens lot about violating wedge pattern but finally it starts its journey to right direction which is downwards.
     CMP is 2526 and on MCX India it is quoting Rs 175. I shorted it already. 
     Jay Shriram. 
Update first, 10.15 pm IST
zinc hourly
     Posted zinc hourly chart is showing mirror image. Price rose in ascending wedge chart pattern. after breakout from wedge it hover horizontally for 8 hours and start falling. But amazing fact is that , price is falling in mirror pattern. You can see mirror image of left hand rising ( bear ) wedge to your right hand and price is respecting both support line and resistance line of it. Amazing live show is going on in zinc hourly chart and same time mirror pattern is going on in gold 15 min chart. I posted it on my twitter handle. To get such timely updates , follow me on twitter.
     Important thing is that our position is in profit, but price is not falling vertically, it is going down making lower high lower low. It will take its time to go down and I hav lot of patience to wait. that's it at this moment. Jay Shriram.


Monday, 7 January 2019

Bear wedge beakout on Gold hourly

gold hourly
     As shown in the hourly chart of gold, you can see price came out of bear wedge giving a valid down ward breakout. So I sold gold at 1290.27 and on MCX India 5 Feb contract on Rs 31,645.
     Price took resistance from 78 % fib level and return downward. It may be correction or just a pull back. I don't care about that. I want little money from this trade set up and thats it.
     Jay Shriram.
First updae 01.06 pm IST
gold hourly 
     MCX India gold 05 Feb contract price is Rs 31570 and $ 1283 on CFD. We have now 75 rupees profit, so book half the profit and trail your stoploss.
     As you can see price broke out from bear wedge yesterday and fall vertically till 50 % fib level. Took support there for 8 hours ( 8 candles ) and fall again. Price is resting on last fib support of 23 % now. Lets see, what will happen. Now we book half of the profit and using trailing sl method to protect remained profit. So guys, we have nothing to loose. So enjoy the scene chatting Jay Shriram.


Friday, 4 January 2019

Descending tringle on gold 15 min

gold 15 min
     This is short term intraday trade idea. chart used is 15 min chart. Lower high lower low is clearly visible. Descending triangle chart pattern. 
    Sell below support line ( mcx India Rs 31745 ) of the triangle for little quick gains. Jay Shriram.
Update first, 4th Jan, 02.46
gold 15 min
     Within few minutes our trade has turned in a profitable trade. Price breached supportline and went down. CMP is 1293.22 & MCX price is Rs 31715. Use trailing sl method to protect profit's.
Jay Sriram.
Update second, 4th Jan, 08.04 pm IST
gold 15 min
     CMP is 1282.30 , very good profit in intraday. I am closing my position because I am satisfied with profits. Cmp on mcx India is Rs 31540. Nearly 200 points/ 1kg lot. That means Rs 20000 / lot. Jay Shriram.


Thursday, 3 January 2019

Long copper

copper hourly
copper 15 min
     As drawn on the hourly & 15 minute copper chart, price came out of the bull wedge on hourly chart but not spiked up. But on 15 min chart I can easily smell the upmove because of the smaller period exponential moving averages are crossing longer ones. 
    Price is 2.609 & Rs 407.30 on MCX India. I took the long trade. Let's hope for good. Jay Shriram.
Update first, 4th Jan 02.35 IST
copper hourly
     In last 24 hours, price went down & came back at the point, where we bought the long trade. Here is hourly chart & price is 2.610 but it is trading with 2 rupees discount on MCX because of lack of proper volume. It will uplift itself within next few hours.
     Price is quoting above black trend line, above 12 MA, convergence line of Ichimoku crossed base line upwards, Supertrend gave buy signal. Everything is with our trade. Let's hope for good. Jay Shriram.
Update second, 4th Jan, 09.34 pm IST
     Finally our trade is successful. Price went above ichimoku cloud, I am using trailing sl method to protect my profits now. CMP is 2.635. We bought long position at 2.609. On our local Indian MCX copper price is trading at Rs 408 above, we entered at 407 around. I am unable to understand Rs 2 discount on MCX price for copper. There is no big volatility on forex front regarding USD/INR. God knows the reason. Enjoy profits saying Jay Shriram.
Last update, 7th Jan, 11.40 am IST
copper hourly 
     CMP of copper is Rs 409 + on MCX India & 2.644 as CFD . We are now in profit. I am going to stop updating this post because you can use trailing sl method and protect or book your profits now. Enjoy profits, Jay Shriram.








Monday, 31 December 2018

Short Copper for short term

31/12//2018, 08.30 pm IST
copper hourly
     As shown in the copper hourly chart, price is trying to breach support line from past low on downside. If sustain below black support line, there is a chance to earn money shorting copper for short term little profit. 2.658 is price where support exists. On MCX Feb 28 contract, it may come around 411 rupees. Currently price is struggling at this point. Price spent last five days in a narrow priceband for consolidation. Watch carefully and short it , if sustained below black S line. Jay Shriram.
Update 1, 08.58 pm IST
copper hourly
     As mentioned earlier, this is short term trade for little profit. My short position is carrying little profit. So I m using trailing sl system to protect my profits. Jay Shriram 
Update 2, 12.50 pm IST
copper hourly
     Booked full profit & exited the trade. On MCX India, today low of Feb contract is Rs 406.80 & CMP is 408 rupees. So guys, we r in good profits because we take the short trade around Rs 411. Book the whole profit & enjoy saying Jay Shriram.



Saturday, 29 December 2018

WTI Crude price about to breakout

WTI Crude hourly
 WTI Crude price closed at $ 45.12 on Friday. Both bulls & bears are hoping the move in their side. But looking at the crude hourly chart, we can easily notice that the price is moving in a consolidation fashion in a measured Symmetrical Triangle or coil. Same way on the Ichimoku system, price is moving within the cloud, which is again untradeable space. Around the inventory timing at yesterday, price try to breakout from cloud on downside but failed in that attempt & turn upward. Again price had to give respect to the descending trend line where price respected the line for three times in recent past and turn around. So price repeated the same move for fourth occasion and returned in cloud making the " noisy " word true. As per Ichimoku system, price is within the untradeable entity because it is within the cloud. Both base line & convergence line are crossing each other again and again in same price band.
     Now looking at the coil, we can see that the coil pattern is about to end soon because space for movement of price decreased considerably. So price has to come out of it giving breakout to pattern within next 8 - 9 candles ( max ). If this happens, we can see both side breakouts as a character of coil. In both cases price will also come out of cloud also, which gives us more solid reason to enter in trade.
     In the case of upward breakout, major resistance and target of price will be $ 47, which is prior high. In the case of downward breakout price will get support in the region of $ 42.40 - 42.70.
Update 1, 31/12/2018, 11.30 IST
wti crude hourly
     WTI Crude price gave upward breakout from coil & Ichimoku cloud. I am feeling little uncomfortable with bullish position but chart has no emotion. So as a rule of trading, I am holding long with strict stop loss below resistance line of the coil. Lets hope for good. Jay Shriram.
Update 2, 31/01/2018, 08.10 pm IST
WTI Crude hourly
     I booked all profits and exited from this long trade because I am not comfortable with long position in crude. I am seeing this spike as a pullback of a falling price in big timeframe chart ( weekly ). Bear flag is developing and nothing else. So guys, enjoy profits, Jay Shriram.


Thursday, 20 December 2018

NG is turning hot again

ng 4 hrs 
Looking at ng 4 hrs chart , one can easily notice that ,'' after making downward breakout from coil, price made it's downward journey till 36 days old trend line ( black ) which is working as support line. 
After kissing support line price lifted upward but failed in sustaining the move and came down. But again it had to give respect to support line and lifted upward in no time. 
At the moment price is quoting 3.800 on nymex & Rs 266 MCX India. One can enter in buy position keeping stop loss below black trend line.
Jay Shriram. 

Inventory update 09.41 pm IST

Update 2 , 27/12/2018, 03.35 IST

I am holding the long trade. My sl did not triggered because I trade on MCX India & our market is closed when price came below black support line. I select the option to keep the trade alive. Now CMP is 3.445 & Rs 243. 



Friday, 22 June 2018

sell crude at cmp 4600

crude hourly 


As shown in the hourly chart, price reached 67.78 dollar mark. as per wave count and coil break out tgt, it should return back towards 62 dollars sooner or latter. So one can think shorting it. Mcx CMP p is 4600 INR. JAY Shriram.
Update 1, 01.027 IST, 25/06/18
crude hourly

Cmp of crude is 4700 INR or 68.83. We entered short at 67.70 or INR mcx 4600. our position is in loss of 1 dollar or Rs 100 mcx.
At the time of entering the short I thought that 5th sub wave of sub wave (B) will end at max 68.50 dollar mark, but after OPEC meeting huge short covering pushed 3rd sub sub wave of sub wave (B) 69 dollar mark, then downward 4th sub sub wave looking finished at the drawn mark in the chart. Now only last sub sub wave 5 remained, which can take price to max 71 or can end before that and then new C impulsive wave will start on downward. So hold this short position with patience for good profit. Jay Shriram.

Update 2, IST 01.30, 26th June.

https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/WTI-201806254765368.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=public-post&utm_term=Garrett&utm_content=4765368

This is a link from where I took this wave count on 2 hour chart. You can read analysis by visiting the website. My count is little different from this count.
Crude hourly.
Difference between first count & my count is that, I think the 5 the wave of sub wave ( c ) is over making a double top. In first count that expert predicts that the 4th corrective wave of ( c ) is ongoing, after finishing this wave new 5 the wave will take price towards 71 dollar's mark & that ll be end of major corrective wave B. Then impulsive wave C ll start on downside. 
Let's see what will happen . Jay Shriram.
Update 3, IST 08.22 pm, 26/06/18
crude hourly
I was wrong in calculating 4th wave of sub wave (c). consequently expected end of major wave B mismarked. Now it's clear that wave 4 of sub wave (c) ends at 67.75 and last 5th wave is going on, which can take price up to 70.70 ( max ). That will be end of major corrective wave B. Thereafter major impulsive wave C will start on downside. As a rule it should go below 63.40. Expected mark is 62.50 dollar's Jay Shriram.
Update 4 , 08.04 pm IST, 09/07/2018
Frankly speaking, my wave counts failed. I was not correct. Fundamental news like Iran sanction & big -9 inventory draw pushed wti price near dolor 75. I stucked in position. I have puts, which has very less value. only 7 trading days remained to expiry of contract on mcx. Steps taken by Trump and Opec are giving some hopes to escape but time remain very less. If I have futures shorted inspite of puts, I can roll it over. All is upon destiny now, Jay Shriram.
Update 5, last update, 7 pm IST, 13/07/2018
crude daily
Today I booked all the losses. Tuesday is expiry of the contract on mcx but today is tender day for options, so I sold all my puts at throw away price. Booked all losses.
As shown in the daily chart price has to come to kiss 65 dolor mark, it touched resistance line of the ascending broadening wedge, made coil and got downward breakout. It is making bear flag at the moment, so 65 is on the cards, but now that is useless for me. Jay Shriram.






Tuesday, 19 June 2018

sell NG

ng daily
As shown in the daily chart of Natural Gas futures, price made break out from the bear wedge. The wedge is not perfect but it can work. CMP mcs is 199 . Try to short it, 2.87 is the confirmation mark of the bearishness, it confirms that rally is over. Jay Shriram.
ng 4 hrs 
You can see in this 4 hrs chart that price break both the blue trendlines downwards. 5 times, price had taken support from 2.87 mark, which is shown in the red line. Jay Shriram.
update 1 , 08.13 IST, 21/06/ 18
ng daily
ng hourly 
As shown in the daily chart, price went downward after this post but took support and went up to 3.013 or mcx 204.50. Today is inventory day for ng and inventory is not bullish ... EIA Natural Gas Inventory: +91 Bcf vs. +85 Bcf consensus, +96 Bcf last week. so you can see in hourly chart, price moved in bear wedge for full day and break out downwards. This wedge is not fulfilling all the requisites of toching R line & S line but it is working with inventory which is favouring us . Let's hope for good. Jay Shriram.
update 2, 09.27 pm IST, 21/06/18
ng 4 hrs 
Look at this 4 hrs ng chart. Coil or symmetrical triangle is there. As requisites of the valid coil is 2 times touch to resistance line and 2 times to support line, this coil has 2 touchs of price to R line and 1 to S line, ongoing wave is downwards. So expect this coil to break downwards. This is very powerful pattern. Jay Shriram.
update 3 , 01.06 pm, 25/06/18
ng 4 hrs 
As shown in the NG 4 hrs chart, price consolidate in symmetrical triangle ( coil ) and made downward breakout. We are back in the profit in this positional short. coil is powerful pattern, very few times I saw a failure of this pattern but price can reverse back & touch S line of coil but that line will work as resistance line for the price because of the rule of polarity. so hold your short position for big gains. Once 5 time support of 2.87 will break, price will tumble down heavily. 
Thank you for visiting my blog, Jay Shriram.
update 4 , 09.00 IST, 26/06/18
There is some fundamental news about ng, which can drag down the price of the commodity. China may cut import of ng from U.S. The link is below   
China trade dispute threatens LNG exports from U.S., Total CEO says https://seekingalpha.com/news/3366272?source=ansh $TOT, $UNG, $UGAZ, $DGAZ, $BOIL, $KOLD, $UNL, $DCNG, $GAZB
Update 5, 08.00 IST, 09/07/2018
ng 4hrs
As shown in the the 4 hrs chart, ng price dropped after posting this post. In rupee term , we sold it around Rs 199 & made avg near 205 now it is howering around 195- 194. I booked my full profits and made exit from this trade. There are chances of downfall but I prefer to book profits. Enjoy , Jay Shriram.







Thursday, 14 June 2018

copper again in a bull wedge

copper hourly

copper 4 hrs 
As you can see in the hourly and 4 hourly charts, copper price is moving in a bull or falling wedge. which is one of the bullish pattern on which we can depend on. Either you can buy at cmp 3.222 , mcx 381.90 or wait for breakout. Your choice. Maintain sl below the support line of the wedge. Jay Shriram.
Update 15/06/2018
My pattern failed, prediction failed. Feeling sorry about that. Jay Shriram.

Wednesday, 13 June 2018

Copper hourly .... bull wedge

copper hourly cfd 
As shown in the hourly chart of copper, price is moving in a descending red channel. You can see a falling wedge which is also called as a bull wedge in a black color. this bull wedge pattern is one of the powerful pattern. Trade with confidence, go for long after breakout of the price from bull wedge for the tgt of resistance line of the red channel. There is chance that price turn downward after taking resistance from wedge resistance line and kiss supportline again. But keep in mind that after touching the supportline of the wedge price will again turn upward. Best strategy is to enter in position only after breakout from bull wedge. Jay Shriram.
Update first 13/06/18, 06.16 pm ist
crude hourly 
Here is the bull wedge breakout on hourly chart. Happened as expected. Enjoy the trade with traling sl. Jay shriram.
Update 3,  11.30 ist 14/06/18
copper hourly 
Hope you booked profits using trailing sl method as suggested. Enjoy, Jay Shriram.



Thursday, 7 June 2018

crude 4 hrs .... pre matured upward breakout

pre matured upward breakout

crude 4 hrs 
As shown in the crude nymex 4 hrs chart, price made it's breakout from the bull weadge at pre matured stage. As a rule of polarity , now R line of the wedge will work as support line and tgt is 68 dolors which is prior high. Let's watch it.
Update 1 -- 11/06/18, 9.00 pm ist
crude 4 hrs 
I adjust bull wedge but tgt is intact. Now you can see something like coil in blue lines. I am saying this as something because this is not perfect coil but still it can work. Let's see.
update 2 , 9.15 pm ist
crude 4 hrs 
This is perfect coil, if break upwards should touch 68 mark in no time.
update 3, 07.17 ist, 14/06/18
crude 4 hrs 
crude price made high of 67.17 dolors, facing resistance from wedge R line, better is to book all profits on long and exit. Our tgt of 68 dolor's is just 80 cent away so no need to take risk.
Enjoy the profits , Jay Shriram.