Crude upward breakout

mcx crude hourly chart 

     Respective readers, we bought crude at 3204 on 29th March. I mentioned it on mmb on the same date. We were waiting it to cross 3200 mark before it actually happens.

     Why we were waiting for 3200 to cross ? because crossing this mark gave us confirmation of trend reversal. crude price cross first 2 resistances successfully. Now crude is moving in a upward channel and already made 3 higher highs and 3 lower highs. First resistance was placed at 3157 and second was placed at 3186 to 196 range. Again on 30th Mar price took resistance at 3243 to 3247 mark, returned back but successfully crossed it upwards and wee trail our sl ctc. This resistance was very much important because in past price returned downward from this resistance on 3 occasions. You can easily see it on chart. 

     Now there is no resistance till 3336 to 3350. Price can easily go up to this band. 

     Again if crude cross this 3350 mark, there will be next resistance placed at 3400 mark. This resistance is different from other resistances because it is made from gap down chart pattern in the past. See the 9th mar 2017 gap on horizontal line placed at 3400 mark. Next resistance is 3533, again it is made from gap down and final is 3587.

     Conclusion --- crude can touch 3600 mark, trade with sl. Use resistance levels to place sl because once price cross resistance line upward, then the same line works as support line.

     Hope, you like this trade idea, If you like it, then please share it on facebook and other social media. Thank you, Jay Shriram.

update 1, 7th Apr, 12.55 am

mcx houly chart

     

As seen in the chart, crude price cross all major resistances and turn upwards. We bought it at 3204. Now next hurdle is 3374, which is prior high, now it will work as resistance. After crossing that 3400 is next resistance.
On the downside, 3330, 3317 and 3303 are supports. Within them 3303 is major support, if this support will break, we will exit from the long position at all.
Intraday traders can use these levels to trade with buy on deep strategy.
Thanking you, Jay Shriram.

Update 2, 12th April 2017, 12.10 pm

mcx crude daily

     Cmp crude is 3464, we are nearing our tgt 3600. Crude price is in upward channel, making higher highs and higher lows. the trend is intact.

Update 3, 14th April 2017, 01.37 pm

mcx crude hourly chart

     As indicated in the chart, we enter crude long trade at 3204 for the tgt of 3600, but yesterday our trailing sl hit at 3425. I trailed sl very near to cmp because there is Head & Shoulder pattern is in making on crude hourly chart. So I think that it is better to book profits. If crude price broke neckline of HS pattern, which is placed around 3406 around, crude can go down towards 3310 around for short term. I will think to enter long again near that short term support, if things happen as I think right now. Next chart is showing HS pattern in making.

mcx crude hourly chart

    You can see, right shoulder is about to end its formation on hourly chart. If it successfuly make it, then tgt is 3320 around. So trade accordingly. We booked our profits, so post is closed now.

   To get timely updates, follow me on twitter, google+ and subscribe free by email. thank you, Jay Shriram.

descending triangle on Lead hourly chart

     The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.
     Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more comparable lows form a horizontal line at the bottom. Two or more declining peaks form a descending trend line above that converges with the horizontal line as it descends. If both lines were extended right, the descending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending up from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example of attached lead charts.
     (1) Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the descending triangle is definitely a bearish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount.
     (2) Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line. The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance separating the lows and a reaction high between them. Here we can easily see 4 exponential lows & 2 real body lows, if the exponential is not taken in to account.
     (3) Upper Descending Trend Line: At least 2 reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid. In the case of Lead chart, we can see 2 reaction highs kissing upper descending trend line.
Why this descending triangle is most important chart pattern ? because in contrast to the symmetrical triangle a descending triangle has a definite bearish bias before the actual break. The symmetrical triangle is a neutral formation that relies on the impending breakout to dictate the direction of the next move. For the descending triangle, the horizontal line represents demand that prevents the security from declining past a certain level. It is as if a large buy order has been placed at this level and it is taking a number of weeks or months to execute, thus preventing the price from declining further. Even though the price does not decline past this level, the reaction highs continue to decline. It is these lower highs that indicate increased selling pressure and give the descending triangle its bearish bias.
     conclusion -- Ascending and descending triangals are perfect chart patterns to predict the future movement of price. Read this post carefully and use it to earn some money. Thank you Jay Shriram    

Result of chart pattern

as seen in the lead hourly chart, after break out, price tumbled down heavily and now moving towards lower circuit. CMP is around 148. Rs 5 gain means 25000 rupees in single lot.As seen in the hourly Lead chart, price gave breakout and tumble down heavily. CMP is around 148 and it going towards 

Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Update 2 for Gagan Jain, 1st April 2017, 02.31 pm 

     Respective Gagan Jain, Lead hourly chart is pasted here. see it carefully. After downword breakout from first descending triangle, lead price made low around 148. After that price went in to consolidation. Now, it is again in the process of making descending triangle, which is perfect bearish chart pattern. It made two highs touching descending line of triangle and touched 2 times to support line. But when it touched second time to support line, that can not be count as 2nd time touch. It is because before touching to support line, the wave should start from descending ( upper line ) line of the triangle. so conclusion is that, price is wel within the descending triangle, made 2 touching marks to upper descending line and made 1 mark to support line. Now if it touch supportline placed at 149.45 , the triangle pattern requisites will be fulfilled and it will ready to give downward break out.

     So I request you to study the chart carefully, keep in mind that this is hourly chart and gives short term indications of the future movement of price. I you find that,' I went wrong in reading chart at some point, please suggest me the same. It will help me in my learning.'

     Thanking you, Jay Shriram.

     This is not April full 

update 3, 7th April, 02.53 pm

     See the beautiful down move by lead kissing the breakout line. Patience are paying good profits now. Thank you, Jay Shriram. 

silver chart

mcx silver hourly chart 

This is the hourly silver mcx chart & you can see symmetrical triangle developed. Break out point is as a rule, highest & lowest price within the triangle.

One can take position after breakout. Thanking you, Jay Shriram. 

Update 1, 22nd mar, 06.00 p.m.

Yes, it happened as happens usually after coil creation. Huge jump from 40800 to 41300. Price broke out at 41221 and entered in bullish territory.

Currentally silver is in hands of hedge funds and bank's at comex. so trade with strict trailing sl. that's all what I can say about this commodity. We booked heavy losses after fed rate hike. Some days ago. Jay Shriram.

Update 2, 25 th March, saturday

mcx silver hourly chart

As seen in the chart, after complision of symmetrical triangle ( coil ) pattern price broke 41221 mark, which was the confirmation of upward breakout. After that it went up to 41600 & closed on 41500 mark positively.

Now next resistance is 42000, that means price can go up to 42000 mark without any major resistance. On down side 41200 will play a role of support line.

This is how technical analysis help us to predict price movements. I love triangle pattern's because these are perfect tool to predict future movement.

I am closing this post now. NO further updates will be there. Enjoy safer profits. Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Update 3, 27 march, 07.30 pm

Final tgt achived, CMP is 42,100. Enjoy, Jay Shriram

Zinc analysis

zinc mcx daily chart

     Here I attached daily mcx zinc chart. I used bollinger band and fib retracement tool to judge the trend 
and resistance.
     You can see that last candle is closed above middle line (red), which is bullish sign and the price can go upward within the bollinger band. 
    Next resistance is placed at 190, which is 61% fib retracement of prior fall from 198 to 176. If the 
price cross and sustained above it then it can go towards 194 mark which is again 78% fib retracement.
     But I look it is very dificult to happen because after 204, there is 198 mark as a prior lower high, 
which will work as solid resistance. Upper line which is resistance line of bollinger band is also placed at 194.

     conclusion -- Those who stuck in short position should cover their short position if the price moves upward in monday trading session. Wait for some time, let the price go upward and place sell order again in sl format order ctc. If zinc price return back, you will automatically enter again in short position.

     Thank you, Jay Shriram

Update 1,22nd Mar, 05.21 pm

This is the result. Zinc made a coil, i.e. symmetrical triangle & moved down to kiss 183 mark. After that it took some retracement and return upward towards base line of triangle. 

188.60 is the highest price within this triangle, which is also 78% retracement of the prior fall from 193 to 176. 

So, one can easily see lower low's -- lower high's formation in making on this zinc hourly chart. Thank you Jay Shriram.

Zinc fundamental's

Zinc on MCX settled down -1.21% at 183.90 as pressure seen after the China's economic growth is likely to slow to 6.5 percent this year and cool further to 6.3 percent in 2018, the OECD said, though exports are set to pick up as global demand strengthens.

Also prices seen pressure after the update that Peru's Zinc production output increased by 11.3 percent in January from the same month a year earlier official data showed on Tuesday.

Also China's economic growth is likely to slow to 6.5 percent this year and cool further to 6.3 percent in 2018, the OECD said, though exports are set to pick up as global demand strengthens.

While on support side Peruvian zinc and silver miner Volcan said it had declared force majeure on its mineral deliveries after heavy flooding disrupted transportation from the country's central region to the Pacific coast.

Heavy rains in Peru have disrupted train transport of minerals, and the train line could take at least 15 days to fix. The region is home to Chinalco's 300,000 tonne-per-year Toromocho coppermine, and a zinc and silver mine owned by Volcan.

Final update, 27th March 2017, 07.42 pm

Look at the attached chart, zinc CMP is 178. Profit of more than 6 points, that means 30000 rupees in single lot. 

silver, new technical's after yesterday's gap up

You can see gap up opening on this 4 hourly mcx silver chart. This gap is created because of the Fed rate hike event. Banks and hedge funds were with the strategy of ," sell on rumours & buy on facts." This strategy push up price heavily on comex. At the same time MCX was closed. Result is that at the morning, on the opening bell, Silver price on MCX updated itself to the comex price creating a gap.

But now, it interesting to see that if the price can maintain the gain ?. Gap shown in ellipse. Bollinger band also made a big gap size. That suggest us a range for silver price movement in future. Half of gap is filled by price. Lower end of this gap is placed at 39300 mark. Price is trading on the moving line average. when the price pulls back (higher as in this case of rate hike ), within the downtrend, if it stays below the middle band and then moves back to lower band it shows a lot of strength. In attached chart we can see that,' the price is trading on the middle band, if it break the red line down side, then it can reenter bearish trend again and move towards the lower end of bollinger band. Lower line of bollinger band is placed at 39300 around.
Now another aspect to think about is gap shown in ellipse. Lower end of this gap is placed at 40100 mark. If silver price break this mark downward, only then it entered in perfect bearish territory . Till then it can move here and there, trying to consolidate itself.

sell silver @ cmp 40360

sell silver @ cmp 40360 with the sl of 40700 for the tgt below 40000.

Update 1 , 12.47 pm, 14 th mar,

daily chart, silver.

silver broke major support of 40500, it sustained below it for few hours. Now next tgt is Rs 38,300. Jay Shriram.
You can read full technical analysis on investing.com site, I wrote there, lack of time I have, so link is here .... https://in.investing.com/analysis/silver-broke-major-support-of-41500,-moving-towards-38300-mark-200178753?

Update 2, 01.02, 15th Mar 2017.

Today silver price hit our first tgt which is below 40000 mark. see the chart, next is rs 39,500. We are using trailing sl method to protect profits. Jay Shriram.

Update 3 , 09.45, 16th Mar 2017.
Sudden spike in comex silver, is up in late trading. I dont know what was actually happen ? May be some contract change or something else. Searching for it. candles are showing comex silver and line is showing mcx silver price. thank you.  The 25 bps rate hike—from 0.75% to 1%—by the US Federal Reserve signals more vigilance as inflation approaches its target

silver gap, update 4, 17th Mar, 11.38 am

You can see gap up opening on this 4 hourly mcx silver chart. This gap is created because of the Fed rate hike event. Banks and hedge funds were with the strategy of ," sell on rumors & buy on facts." This strategy push up price heavily on comex. But it interesting to see that if the price can maintain the gain ?.

 Gap shown in ellipse. Half of gap is filled by price. Lower end of this gap is placed at 40100 mark. If silver price break this mark downward, only then it entered in perfect bearish teritorry . Till then it can move here and there, trying to consolidate itself.

copper --- nearing its death

Nithing to say in words, look at the chart and judge it.
head and shoulder pattern on copper daily