Crude upward breakout

mcx crude hourly chart 

     Respective readers, we bought crude at 3204 on 29th March. I mentioned it on mmb on the same date. We were waiting it to cross 3200 mark before it actually happens.

     Why we were waiting for 3200 to cross ? because crossing this mark gave us confirmation of trend reversal. crude price cross first 2 resistances successfully. Now crude is moving in a upward channel and already made 3 higher highs and 3 lower highs. First resistance was placed at 3157 and second was placed at 3186 to 196 range. Again on 30th Mar price took resistance at 3243 to 3247 mark, returned back but successfully crossed it upwards and wee trail our sl ctc. This resistance was very much important because in past price returned downward from this resistance on 3 occasions. You can easily see it on chart. 

     Now there is no resistance till 3336 to 3350. Price can easily go up to this band. 

     Again if crude cross this 3350 mark, there will be next resistance placed at 3400 mark. This resistance is different from other resistances because it is made from gap down chart pattern in the past. See the 9th mar 2017 gap on horizontal line placed at 3400 mark. Next resistance is 3533, again it is made from gap down and final is 3587.

     Conclusion --- crude can touch 3600 mark, trade with sl. Use resistance levels to place sl because once price cross resistance line upward, then the same line works as support line.

     Hope, you like this trade idea, If you like it, then please share it on facebook and other social media. Thank you, Jay Shriram.

update 1, 7th Apr, 12.55 am

mcx houly chart

     

As seen in the chart, crude price cross all major resistances and turn upwards. We bought it at 3204. Now next hurdle is 3374, which is prior high, now it will work as resistance. After crossing that 3400 is next resistance.
On the downside, 3330, 3317 and 3303 are supports. Within them 3303 is major support, if this support will break, we will exit from the long position at all.
Intraday traders can use these levels to trade with buy on deep strategy.
Thanking you, Jay Shriram.

Update 2, 12th April 2017, 12.10 pm

mcx crude daily

     Cmp crude is 3464, we are nearing our tgt 3600. Crude price is in upward channel, making higher highs and higher lows. the trend is intact.

Update 3, 14th April 2017, 01.37 pm

mcx crude hourly chart

     As indicated in the chart, we enter crude long trade at 3204 for the tgt of 3600, but yesterday our trailing sl hit at 3425. I trailed sl very near to cmp because there is Head & Shoulder pattern is in making on crude hourly chart. So I think that it is better to book profits. If crude price broke neckline of HS pattern, which is placed around 3406 around, crude can go down towards 3310 around for short term. I will think to enter long again near that short term support, if things happen as I think right now. Next chart is showing HS pattern in making.

mcx crude hourly chart

    You can see, right shoulder is about to end its formation on hourly chart. If it successfuly make it, then tgt is 3320 around. So trade accordingly. We booked our profits, so post is closed now.

   To get timely updates, follow me on twitter, google+ and subscribe free by email. thank you, Jay Shriram.

Latest crude study

Some chart study on crude

crude is trying to break the support line of upward channel. If it break support of 3580 and stay below it for some time, then it will start falling downwards. Next support is placed @ 3530 @ 3460. 

On the other hand, if crude again entered in channel & move above 3668 then it will enter bullish zone & try to go towards 3750.

Again remind you that this is not trading call, just for info. Jay Shriram

Buy crude @ cmp 3570

Buy crude oil @ cmp 3570, 14th Feb 2017, 09.08 p.m

Buy crude oil @ cmp 3570 with the sl of 3510 for the minimum tgt of 3620, actual tgt is 3700 + , manage profit booking @ your own. Don't wait for me to update. It is positional call but crude sl can hit in todays session also. 

Update 1, 15th Feb 09.50 pm

We are @ the same price from where we start the trade. As expected crude took the support near 3540 & turned upwards but it is essential for bullishness that price should break the first resistance placed @ 3589. If it failed then there will be lower top lower lows chart formation. And as per Dow theory if the price breach second low (which is around 3540), price will tumble down like Jack & Jill poem. Lets hope for good. Jay shriram.
Update 2, 16th Feb, 05.00 pm

crude is trading in declining triangle on weekly charts, just see it & you will find that, resistance line of this triangle is declining as time is passing. At the moment the resistance line is posted @ 3565 and price is knocking it. If price cross the line then next resistance on upside is 3580, if failed to cross then 3530. very crucial situation.

Update 3, 17th Feb, 05.19 p.m

As a rule of polarity, now resistance line of prior triangle is become support line. There is only R2 remains as resistance because R1 is breached by price yesterday. So as technical chart showing there is support at triangle r line and resistance @ 3590 only. I can see that there is higher top higher bottom formation is going on, on this hourly chart, which has shown in digits 1-1, 2-2, 3-3?

Update 4, 20th Feb 2017, 04.10 p.m

CMP is 3640 around. Please book all the profits & exit the trade. We shorted crude @ 3570 + 35 rupees carryforward premium = 3605. CMP is around 3640, means we got 35 to 40 points profit. In rupees we got Rs 3,500 to 4000 profit. Yes it is very little profit but enjoy it saying Jay Shriram. 

 

See, what Grega Horvat is saying about crude.

Grega Horvat ‏@GregaHorvatFX  17h17 hours ago

Crude oil is moving sideways for the last few week, a correction that will take us higher i believe. for now, above the neckline pic.twitter.com/qOLEYdRfN0

short crude below 3568

Short crude if it will breach the level of 3568 & stay there for a while. Read the below given hourly chart very carefully. And only after that start reading.

As mentioned in the chart & shown in the prior post, crude is in the no trading zone of 3570 to 3670. If it breach the support line of 3568, then and only then go short. After that, price will go to take suport from channel resistance line. Which will go down & down, as it is southmoving channel.
Thank you.

Update 1, 4th Feb 2017, 01.17 pm. 

CMP is 3615. wait for given price 3568 below to go short on crude. If it will not happen, then wait for few days or hours. That will give us some technical advantage. It is not binding to us to trade on daily basis and loose money. Wait for good chart structure to enter trade. Thank you. 
Update 2, 8th feb 2017, 03.37 pm.
Book complete profit and exit the crude short position. We shorted it @ 3568 and cmp is 3480 around. We have nearly 90 rupees profit in hand.i.e. Rs 9000 in single lot. so hurry up guys. It can not go below 3400. So book your profit. Jay shriram

Crude - waiting for a good chance to enter short trade

2nd feb 2017, 11.25 am, Yes, I am watching crude movement since last few days and waiting for a good chance to enter a short position. Look @ the chart carefully and only then read.

From 27 th Jan 2017 Crude is in a down move. I draw a channel to show the down move. Price broke the channel resistance line around 1st Feb. Point to be noted that this is hourly chart. After breaking channel upwards and gained Rs 30 & made a high around 3620. Again it dropped but took support of upper channel line. Again this rule is proved that," if price broke resistance line and stay above it for considerable time, the resistance line becomes support line." Here you can see the same is happened. Rs 3640 & 3700 is the resistance but if price break last low of 3560 then it will go to take support from channel line , which is going down & down as the time is passing away. I show this down moving tgt in red arrows. This is not trading call. Just for info.

crude done the 78 % retracement of prior fall from 7800 to 2634 @ 2768

Crude 78% retracement of prior fall done

 As  seen in the chart, crude done its 78 % retracement of prior fall from 7800 to 2634 @ 2768 today. Now it should travel again towards 2450 which is final tgt of downmove.

If it will go above 2770 in good way and sustain then, crue will turn bullish.

Update 5th Aug 2016, 07.07 Pm

crude hourly chart 

As said in the original post , crude went above 2770 and sustain in good way near 2800 mark. It turns bullish for short term now, but it should cross 2817 mark, if failed to do so, there will be double top formation. This attached hourly chart shows us fibonacci retracement of fall from 3120 to 2640. Now we cant think about 7800 to 2634 fall because price move above 78% retracement and entered in short term bullish zone in respect to prior chart pattern.

Now price is around 38% retracement of fall from 3120 to 2640 which is 2817. It should cross above this level, if failed to do so , there will be creation of double top and that will work as solid resistance. 2720 is level to watch, if crude go below it, then double top formation will come in place and we can expect free fall of this commodity.

Crude intraday wave count

Intraday wave count crude 5 min chart

This is purely for intrady & for very short term, 5 min chart.

On the same day after publishing this view, crude made hgh of 2738 within 30 minutes

Fibonacci Retracement of crude

Fibonacci Retracement of crude 

 As we can see in attached daily chart, there is fib retracement shown in colors. From Rs 1860 to Rs 3398 crude made a rally. Now it near 50 % retracement 2629. Rs 2450 is 61.8 % retracement, which can be tgt now .

23/07/2016, crude bull bear power

crude daily chart, 23rd july, saturday.

Today is holiday for all exchanges, this is the chance for every trader to do homework. Today I selected bull & Bear power indicator tool. Look deeply @ black circles & you will find that when this bear power yellow color enter below 0 or minus area we get indication of future down trend and that is before the price actually move down in big way. Same thing is about the Bull power indicator. 

For example, count the last 12 candles in attached daily crude chart.  Look vertically down to bear power indicator, it is placed below 0, near around - 20. You will come to conclusion that bear power gave us clear indication of fall around Rs 3200 price level before actually fall starts in big way.

You can use it in your daily trading for intraday purpose also.

Important link --- fundamental & demand supply

According to market experts, elevated stocks of fuel products amid slowing global demand growth is expected to keep prices under pressure in the near-term....... http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-futures---weekly-outlook:-july-25---29-416227

Update - 1, 25/07/2016 

crude hourly chart,

We are in good profits now. Use trailing sl method to protect your profits, trail the sl in profits only. There are no chances that crude will return in to bullish zone. Any rally will be short lived. Use it to enter in short position. 

Look @ the attached chart. Bear power indicator is in full form. Enjoy profits with trailing sl method.

If sustained below 2996, tgt 2950, 2900

22/07/2016 crude hourly

 22/07/2016 crude daily

As shown in daily chart, there is solid support @ 2996. Crude breach minor support of 3020. if sustained below 2996, then it can go towards the 2950 level & then 2900. Resistance is left far away, 3146 is resistance. If crude price mange to sustain above 3020 then chances are there that it can travel towards 3100 level again.

Crude support @ 3000, resistance @ 3101, 3146

 Today we are trading in new contract, which has premium of nearly 60 rupees. But with the helpthis 60 rupees premimum, crude price failed to show any positive breakout. Now the resistance is placed @ 3100 around foloowed by 3146. With this resistance levels in mind, one can enter in short positions using any upward movement. Today is inventory day. I am with the view that inventory will come negative for price. There is simple reason behind this view. In 1 week time span, no producer can increase or decrease the production suddenly. Nothing to write more about it, everything is posted in last post on crude. Wish you happy trading , thank you. Keep visiting.

safe commodity trades : Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short...

safe commodity trades : Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short...: Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short chart 1 chart 2  chart 3  Channels   As seen in chart no 1 & 2, ...

Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short

17/07/2016

chart 1

chart 2 

chart 3 

Channels 

As seen in chart no 1 & 2, crude price broke channel support line 25 days ago. It also broke sub channel downward. This channel is nearly 5 month old.

Declining Triangle

After that price moves in a declining triangle till 20 days and broke the triangle 6 days ago. After moving below the declining triangle support line, price moves between Rs 3000 - 3120 range. In last 6 days price attempted 3 times to move upward but in vain. Once it touch 3146 mark as spike high but return back. You can search google for the declining triangle characters and to see, " what will happen after ending of such pattern ?"

Turkish problem - chart 2 

In chart no 2, which is nymex chart, you can see higher size candle than placed in mcx price chart. It is because turkey problem, which is now resolved. 

Moving Averages 

10 dma & 20 dma crossed 50 dma downwards, which shows bearishness in price movement. I always use moving average because it gives clear indications of the trend. 

Hourly chart 

On hourly chart, we can easily see that Rs 3146 is solid resistance. This is very safe resistance as it is spike high and not a normal high. Again the channel resistance line is placed @ 3146 which gives bears exact sl price. In any way price should not cross Rs 3146 level.

Strategy 

Use each & every rally to go short keeping sl above Rs 3146 for the tgt of  Rs 2900 mcx. Wish you happy & safe trading, thank you.