silver, new technical's after yesterday's gap up

You can see gap up opening on this 4 hourly mcx silver chart. This gap is created because of the Fed rate hike event. Banks and hedge funds were with the strategy of ," sell on rumours & buy on facts." This strategy push up price heavily on comex. At the same time MCX was closed. Result is that at the morning, on the opening bell, Silver price on MCX updated itself to the comex price creating a gap.

But now, it interesting to see that if the price can maintain the gain ?. Gap shown in ellipse. Bollinger band also made a big gap size. That suggest us a range for silver price movement in future. Half of gap is filled by price. Lower end of this gap is placed at 39300 mark. Price is trading on the moving line average. when the price pulls back (higher as in this case of rate hike ), within the downtrend, if it stays below the middle band and then moves back to lower band it shows a lot of strength. In attached chart we can see that,' the price is trading on the middle band, if it break the red line down side, then it can reenter bearish trend again and move towards the lower end of bollinger band. Lower line of bollinger band is placed at 39300 around.
Now another aspect to think about is gap shown in ellipse. Lower end of this gap is placed at 40100 mark. If silver price break this mark downward, only then it entered in perfect bearish territory . Till then it can move here and there, trying to consolidate itself.

sell silver @ cmp 40360

sell silver @ cmp 40360 with the sl of 40700 for the tgt below 40000.

Update 1 , 12.47 pm, 14 th mar,

daily chart, silver.

silver broke major support of 40500, it sustained below it for few hours. Now next tgt is Rs 38,300. Jay Shriram.
You can read full technical analysis on investing.com site, I wrote there, lack of time I have, so link is here .... https://in.investing.com/analysis/silver-broke-major-support-of-41500,-moving-towards-38300-mark-200178753?

Update 2, 01.02, 15th Mar 2017.

Today silver price hit our first tgt which is below 40000 mark. see the chart, next is rs 39,500. We are using trailing sl method to protect profits. Jay Shriram.

Update 3 , 09.45, 16th Mar 2017.
Sudden spike in comex silver, is up in late trading. I dont know what was actually happen ? May be some contract change or something else. Searching for it. candles are showing comex silver and line is showing mcx silver price. thank you.  The 25 bps rate hike—from 0.75% to 1%—by the US Federal Reserve signals more vigilance as inflation approaches its target

silver gap, update 4, 17th Mar, 11.38 am

You can see gap up opening on this 4 hourly mcx silver chart. This gap is created because of the Fed rate hike event. Banks and hedge funds were with the strategy of ," sell on rumors & buy on facts." This strategy push up price heavily on comex. But it interesting to see that if the price can maintain the gain ?.

 Gap shown in ellipse. Half of gap is filled by price. Lower end of this gap is placed at 40100 mark. If silver price break this mark downward, only then it entered in perfect bearish teritorry . Till then it can move here and there, trying to consolidate itself.

copper --- nearing its death

Nithing to say in words, look at the chart and judge it.
head and shoulder pattern on copper daily

NG - Bearish Harami is developing

Bearish Harami is developing on NG daily chart.

7th Mar 2017, 07.00 pm

You can see a large green bullish candle showing yesterdays price movement of NG. Last little red candle is showing today's price movement. Yesterday high was around 197 and low was around 188. Today's high low is 193 and 189 around. 

Price is gapped down today. today it opened at 193 while yesterday close was 196. This gap down opening is important aspect for creating bearish harami. Till this moment NG price is unable to move higher in respect of yesterdays green candle. This again confirm that, bearish harami is developing. 

Ng is fundamentally very sensitive to weather forecast, something like snow storm is on the cards. But is is factored in.

One can think about all this and take decision. Thank you.

Update 2, 9th Mar 2017, 11.59 am,

One of my blog reader Mrs Madhuri Yadav sent me this chart and some writing. It is very correct that, before bearish harami candles appear on the chart, there was a doji. Read what she says.

Bearish reversal patterns can form with one or more candlesticks; most require bearish confirmation. The actual reversal indicates that selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure for one or more days, but it remains unclear whether or not sustained selling or lack of buyers will continue to push prices lower. Without confirmation, many of these patterns would be considered neutral and merely indicate a potential resistancelevel at best. Bearish confirmation means further downside follow through, such as a gap down, long black candlestick or high volume decline. Because candlestick patterns are short-term and usually effective for 1-2 weeks, bearish confirmation should come within 1-3 days.

update 3, 9th March , 12.17 pm
it is interesting to see the fight between bulls and bears. Winter season ends but still bulls are in hope that gas demand will pick up. The are taking support from weather forecast published on 7th march, which indicates some snowfall and little storm somewhere in North East America.But price action shows that any upward movement in NG price cant sustain at high, soon it tumble down. How many times this can happen ?? Or bulls are expecting new big rally is going to start? New storage season is started. 

Shorting NG is work of cool minded guy. Need lot of patience to earn from NG.
Nothing to say more, today is Thursday and there will be lot of volatility at evening because of data.
thanking you, Jay Shriram.

sell silver @ cmp 42380

sell silver @ cmp 42380 for the tgt of 41600 with the sl 42,900. Jay Shriram.

You can see that, silver is in down trend. and recent up move towards 42790 was just a reaction or retracement of fall. On down side, there is a support of 41980 and after that, only support placed @ around 41,500, which is shown in the second chart. ( silver daily ). 
This is only for study purpose. If you like it, then subscribe through email, follow me on twitter and google+ for timely updates. You can trade it on paper only and enjoy it. Jay Shriram.

update 1 , 08.45 pm, 7th Mar.

Friends I booked whole profit at cmp 41930 and exited the trade. 

Update 2 --- tgt achived. 8th March

What is jobbing ? & how can we earn from it on mcx platform ?

Can we generate profit  from doing jobbing on mcx platform ?

Yes, it is sure that," we can generate some money from doing jobbing using mcx platform. I use 'crude' for explaining the same. First of all we should know the concept of jobbing. What we always see in the name of intraday trading is not 'trading' nor 'jobbing' but a tool to destroy capital. Jobbing is very short term buying & selling or selling or buying of a script or commodity with the intent of generating quick profits. Jobbing consist speculative nature. 

I use crude hourly chart to show," how we can use 'nymex' crude price to do jobbing in mcx crude. Lets look at the chart first.

I used candles to show mcx crude price and line to show Nymex crude price. You can see a blue vertical line no 1. Look carefully, this line cross a green candle. This green candle shows mcx crude price open 3551, high 3556, low 3551 and close 3555. This is very recent chart, I just draw it and saw the price action happened. This candle told us that mcx crude remains within only 5 point range for that 1 hour while Nymex crude went down considerably.

My friends, this is the chance for jobbers, you can sell crude here and cover it with very little profit. 

There are some things which can effect your calculations. One of these is currency rate. On Odin software, we can see that, exchange always generates messages about difference in commodity price ( domestic & international ). 

One should use live 'Nymex chart ' for this purpose. there are more chances in less traded commodity like gold 1 kg lot, nickel.

You can earn 3 to 4 points in each trade, if you study it and develop your skills with latest instruments. Instead of doing intraday trading, think about doing jobbing.

There are more things to write about, but I stop this article here. Interested reader should use his skill's and try it on paper for many times. Only after then, you can understand --- " what is jobbing ?"

Gold, a vacuum and all gaps will be filled.

gap should be filled, sooner or latter, see hourly chart.

You can easily see that there are 2 gaps created by gold price on hourly chart between Rs 29,450 to 29,500. First is created in its upward journey and second is recently created when gold price broke neckline of head and shoulder pattern to start downward journey. On 23rd Feb it went up creating gap and made head and shoulder pattern there. After that it opened gap down on 28th Feb. This means it takes 5 days to create head and shoulder pattern. 

There are four types of gaps, common, break away, run away and exhaustion. First gap in this chart is exhaustion gap because it happens near the end of up trend. Second gap at the starting of down trend is clearly breakaway gap. 

I used volume indicator in this chart to judge the type of gap. There is old saying that," Gap's will be filled." But we can't trade against the trend. trend is king of price movement. We will wait and watch this king of commodity (gold ). Only after completion of down trend and after clear confirmation, we will enter in to trade. There is nothing much left for positional traders in this down move. But I suggest you to include this commodity in your daily study. You will get good price for entering in bullish trade. Thank you, Jay shriram.
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