Latest crude study

Some chart study on crude

crude is trying to break the support line of upward channel. If it break support of 3580 and stay below it for some time, then it will start falling downwards. Next support is placed @ 3530 @ 3460. 

On the other hand, if crude again entered in channel & move above 3668 then it will enter bullish zone & try to go towards 3750.

Again remind you that this is not trading call, just for info. Jay Shriram

Buy crude @ cmp 3570

Buy crude oil @ cmp 3570, 14th Feb 2017, 09.08 p.m

Buy crude oil @ cmp 3570 with the sl of 3510 for the minimum tgt of 3620, actual tgt is 3700 + , manage profit booking @ your own. Don't wait for me to update. It is positional call but crude sl can hit in todays session also. 

Update 1, 15th Feb 09.50 pm

We are @ the same price from where we start the trade. As expected crude took the support near 3540 & turned upwards but it is essential for bullishness that price should break the first resistance placed @ 3589. If it failed then there will be lower top lower lows chart formation. And as per Dow theory if the price breach second low (which is around 3540), price will tumble down like Jack & Jill poem. Lets hope for good. Jay shriram.
Update 2, 16th Feb, 05.00 pm

crude is trading in declining triangle on weekly charts, just see it & you will find that, resistance line of this triangle is declining as time is passing. At the moment the resistance line is posted @ 3565 and price is knocking it. If price cross the line then next resistance on upside is 3580, if failed to cross then 3530. very crucial situation.

Update 3, 17th Feb, 05.19 p.m

As a rule of polarity, now resistance line of prior triangle is become support line. There is only R2 remains as resistance because R1 is breached by price yesterday. So as technical chart showing there is support at triangle r line and resistance @ 3590 only. I can see that there is higher top higher bottom formation is going on, on this hourly chart, which has shown in digits 1-1, 2-2, 3-3?

Update 4, 20th Feb 2017, 04.10 p.m

CMP is 3640 around. Please book all the profits & exit the trade. We shorted crude @ 3570 + 35 rupees carryforward premium = 3605. CMP is around 3640, means we got 35 to 40 points profit. In rupees we got Rs 3,500 to 4000 profit. Yes it is very little profit but enjoy it saying Jay Shriram. 

 

See, what Grega Horvat is saying about crude.

Grega Horvat ‏@GregaHorvatFX  17h17 hours ago

Crude oil is moving sideways for the last few week, a correction that will take us higher i believe. for now, above the neckline pic.twitter.com/qOLEYdRfN0

short crude below 3568

Short crude if it will breach the level of 3568 & stay there for a while. Read the below given hourly chart very carefully. And only after that start reading.

As mentioned in the chart & shown in the prior post, crude is in the no trading zone of 3570 to 3670. If it breach the support line of 3568, then and only then go short. After that, price will go to take suport from channel resistance line. Which will go down & down, as it is southmoving channel.
Thank you.

Update 1, 4th Feb 2017, 01.17 pm. 

CMP is 3615. wait for given price 3568 below to go short on crude. If it will not happen, then wait for few days or hours. That will give us some technical advantage. It is not binding to us to trade on daily basis and loose money. Wait for good chart structure to enter trade. Thank you. 
Update 2, 8th feb 2017, 03.37 pm.
Book complete profit and exit the crude short position. We shorted it @ 3568 and cmp is 3480 around. We have nearly 90 rupees profit in hand.i.e. Rs 9000 in single lot. so hurry up guys. It can not go below 3400. So book your profit. Jay shriram

Crude - waiting for a good chance to enter short trade

2nd feb 2017, 11.25 am, Yes, I am watching crude movement since last few days and waiting for a good chance to enter a short position. Look @ the chart carefully and only then read.

From 27 th Jan 2017 Crude is in a down move. I draw a channel to show the down move. Price broke the channel resistance line around 1st Feb. Point to be noted that this is hourly chart. After breaking channel upwards and gained Rs 30 & made a high around 3620. Again it dropped but took support of upper channel line. Again this rule is proved that," if price broke resistance line and stay above it for considerable time, the resistance line becomes support line." Here you can see the same is happened. Rs 3640 & 3700 is the resistance but if price break last low of 3560 then it will go to take support from channel line , which is going down & down as the time is passing away. I show this down moving tgt in red arrows. This is not trading call. Just for info.

crude done the 78 % retracement of prior fall from 7800 to 2634 @ 2768

Crude 78% retracement of prior fall done

 As  seen in the chart, crude done its 78 % retracement of prior fall from 7800 to 2634 @ 2768 today. Now it should travel again towards 2450 which is final tgt of downmove.

If it will go above 2770 in good way and sustain then, crue will turn bullish.

Update 5th Aug 2016, 07.07 Pm

crude hourly chart 

As said in the original post , crude went above 2770 and sustain in good way near 2800 mark. It turns bullish for short term now, but it should cross 2817 mark, if failed to do so, there will be double top formation. This attached hourly chart shows us fibonacci retracement of fall from 3120 to 2640. Now we cant think about 7800 to 2634 fall because price move above 78% retracement and entered in short term bullish zone in respect to prior chart pattern.

Now price is around 38% retracement of fall from 3120 to 2640 which is 2817. It should cross above this level, if failed to do so , there will be creation of double top and that will work as solid resistance. 2720 is level to watch, if crude go below it, then double top formation will come in place and we can expect free fall of this commodity.

Crude intraday wave count

Intraday wave count crude 5 min chart

This is purely for intrady & for very short term, 5 min chart.

On the same day after publishing this view, crude made hgh of 2738 within 30 minutes

Fibonacci Retracement of crude

Fibonacci Retracement of crude 

 As we can see in attached daily chart, there is fib retracement shown in colors. From Rs 1860 to Rs 3398 crude made a rally. Now it near 50 % retracement 2629. Rs 2450 is 61.8 % retracement, which can be tgt now .

23/07/2016, crude bull bear power

crude daily chart, 23rd july, saturday.

Today is holiday for all exchanges, this is the chance for every trader to do homework. Today I selected bull & Bear power indicator tool. Look deeply @ black circles & you will find that when this bear power yellow color enter below 0 or minus area we get indication of future down trend and that is before the price actually move down in big way. Same thing is about the Bull power indicator. 

For example, count the last 12 candles in attached daily crude chart.  Look vertically down to bear power indicator, it is placed below 0, near around - 20. You will come to conclusion that bear power gave us clear indication of fall around Rs 3200 price level before actually fall starts in big way.

You can use it in your daily trading for intraday purpose also.

Important link --- fundamental & demand supply

According to market experts, elevated stocks of fuel products amid slowing global demand growth is expected to keep prices under pressure in the near-term....... http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-futures---weekly-outlook:-july-25---29-416227

Update - 1, 25/07/2016 

crude hourly chart,

We are in good profits now. Use trailing sl method to protect your profits, trail the sl in profits only. There are no chances that crude will return in to bullish zone. Any rally will be short lived. Use it to enter in short position. 

Look @ the attached chart. Bear power indicator is in full form. Enjoy profits with trailing sl method.

If sustained below 2996, tgt 2950, 2900

22/07/2016 crude hourly

 22/07/2016 crude daily

As shown in daily chart, there is solid support @ 2996. Crude breach minor support of 3020. if sustained below 2996, then it can go towards the 2950 level & then 2900. Resistance is left far away, 3146 is resistance. If crude price mange to sustain above 3020 then chances are there that it can travel towards 3100 level again.

Crude support @ 3000, resistance @ 3101, 3146

 Today we are trading in new contract, which has premium of nearly 60 rupees. But with the helpthis 60 rupees premimum, crude price failed to show any positive breakout. Now the resistance is placed @ 3100 around foloowed by 3146. With this resistance levels in mind, one can enter in short positions using any upward movement. Today is inventory day. I am with the view that inventory will come negative for price. There is simple reason behind this view. In 1 week time span, no producer can increase or decrease the production suddenly. Nothing to write more about it, everything is posted in last post on crude. Wish you happy trading , thank you. Keep visiting.

safe commodity trades : Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short...

safe commodity trades : Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short...: Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short chart 1 chart 2  chart 3  Channels   As seen in chart no 1 & 2, ...

Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short

17/07/2016

chart 1

chart 2 

chart 3 

Channels 

As seen in chart no 1 & 2, crude price broke channel support line 25 days ago. It also broke sub channel downward. This channel is nearly 5 month old.

Declining Triangle

After that price moves in a declining triangle till 20 days and broke the triangle 6 days ago. After moving below the declining triangle support line, price moves between Rs 3000 - 3120 range. In last 6 days price attempted 3 times to move upward but in vain. Once it touch 3146 mark as spike high but return back. You can search google for the declining triangle characters and to see, " what will happen after ending of such pattern ?"

Turkish problem - chart 2 

In chart no 2, which is nymex chart, you can see higher size candle than placed in mcx price chart. It is because turkey problem, which is now resolved. 

Moving Averages 

10 dma & 20 dma crossed 50 dma downwards, which shows bearishness in price movement. I always use moving average because it gives clear indications of the trend. 

Hourly chart 

On hourly chart, we can easily see that Rs 3146 is solid resistance. This is very safe resistance as it is spike high and not a normal high. Again the channel resistance line is placed @ 3146 which gives bears exact sl price. In any way price should not cross Rs 3146 level.

Strategy 

Use each & every rally to go short keeping sl above Rs 3146 for the tgt of  Rs 2900 mcx. Wish you happy & safe trading, thank you.

Copper in free fall mode

                                      10/7/2016, Sunday.

                        

Channel Pattern 

As indicated in attached daily copper chart, we can easily see that, copper price is moving in a donward moving channel since last 90 days. On 3 occasions ( a,c,e ) it touched resistance line. Price respected resistance line in this upward journey and came back to visit support line ( b & d ). In the third upmove it touched the resistance line and fall vertically. This point is shown in red rectangle.

There is another channel within the main channel, which is indicated by red lines. After returning from resistance line ( rectangle ), price breach support line of this blue colored channel ( circle ) around Rs 325 - 326 mark and as a result it got new steam for its down ward journey. 

                              Failure Of  Expanding triangle

Usually price fell after end of expanding triangle but here we can see the failure of this chart pattern. We can see this triangle colored in blue lines. Instead of going down price sparked upward and touched point e of resistance line.

                                        Moving Averages 

For the purpose of study of dma, 3 types of dma,s used here. (1) 5dma is shown in yellow line (2) 10 dma is shown in blue color line (3) 20 dma is shown in green color line. 5 dma line crossed 10 dma line in downward direction. As there are only 5 days or 5 candles in its downward journey, 10 dma line is yet to show new direction.

                                              Conclusion

Looking at channel structure and break of inner channel support line, we can hope that price will continue its journey towards main support line of big channel towards supportline placed around Rs 300 or 2.22 dolor mark. If we think only about main channel irrespective of inner blue colored channel, price is heading toward support line after visiting resistance line. Support line is placed around Rs 296 to 297. But there is support around Rs 300 or dolor 2.22 which is last time low, shown as point d. So keeping all this factors in mind I suggest to go short in copper @ cmp Rs 318 or 2.12 dolor for the targeted price of Rs 301 mcx or dolor 2.02 with the sl of Rs 321.60 mcx or dolor 2.15 around. Stop loss is placed @ the high price of last day candle. Hoping good profits from this trade, wish you best luck. Request you to use trailing sl method for safer profits. Thank you.