safe commodity trades : Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short...

safe commodity trades : Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short...: Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short chart 1 chart 2  chart 3  Channels   As seen in chart no 1 & 2, ...

Crude nearing solid resistance, chance to go short

17/07/2016

chart 1

chart 2 

chart 3 

Channels 

As seen in chart no 1 & 2, crude price broke channel support line 25 days ago. It also broke sub channel downward. This channel is nearly 5 month old.

Declining Triangle

After that price moves in a declining triangle till 20 days and broke the triangle 6 days ago. After moving below the declining triangle support line, price moves between Rs 3000 - 3120 range. In last 6 days price attempted 3 times to move upward but in vain. Once it touch 3146 mark as spike high but return back. You can search google for the declining triangle characters and to see, " what will happen after ending of such pattern ?"

Turkish problem - chart 2 

In chart no 2, which is nymex chart, you can see higher size candle than placed in mcx price chart. It is because turkey problem, which is now resolved. 

Moving Averages 

10 dma & 20 dma crossed 50 dma downwards, which shows bearishness in price movement. I always use moving average because it gives clear indications of the trend. 

Hourly chart 

On hourly chart, we can easily see that Rs 3146 is solid resistance. This is very safe resistance as it is spike high and not a normal high. Again the channel resistance line is placed @ 3146 which gives bears exact sl price. In any way price should not cross Rs 3146 level.

Strategy 

Use each & every rally to go short keeping sl above Rs 3146 for the tgt of  Rs 2900 mcx. Wish you happy & safe trading, thank you.

safe commodity trades : Copper, in its 6th attempt to break resistance

safe commodity trades : Copper, in its 6th attempt to break resistance: copper daily chart Channel  As seen in attached daily chart, copper is trying its 6th attempt to break Rs 140 resistance. These 6...

safe commodity trades : Copper, in its 6th attempt to break resistance

safe commodity trades : Copper, in its 6th attempt to break resistance: copper daily chart Channel  As seen in attached daily chart, copper is trying its 6th attempt to break Rs 140 resistance. These 6...

Copper, in its 6th attempt to break resistance

copper daily chart

Channel 

As seen in attached daily chart, copper is trying its 6th attempt to break Rs 140 resistance. These 6 points are shown by letters a, b, c, d, e & f. While doing this copper price break the channel resistance in little way. On the other side price respected support line on 2 occasions, i.e. x & y. If failed to break and sustain above 340 level, it should have to return support line again which is now placed below Rs 300. If it breaks resistance of Rs 340 and sustain, then new rally will start towards next resistance around Rs 355. 

Moving average

You can clearly see in the chart that 10 day moving avrage crossed 50 day moving average, it indicates short term bullishness in price.

Conclusion 

One should watch carefully the levels given in the chart & try to follow the trend. Never go against the trend but try to catch reversal. Below the channel resistance line, copper can turn towards support line. If sustained above resistance linewhich is placed around Rs 335, it can again try to break the major resistance of Rs 340 & if it go above that price then new big spike will be there which will take price towards Rs 355 level.

Reminder 

Wait for confirmation of down trend below resistance line to go short & wait for breaching and sustaining above 340 level to go long. Dont trade between channel resistance line and R 1. Thank you , wish you happy trade. Today, news is china weak import export figure.

Update 1 15/7/2016

Nothing has changed in last 2 days.Moving avrage of 20 days also turn up, showing bullishness in trend. Very confusing pattern, longs only above 340, shorts with strict sl.

Update 2 chart, 16/07/2016

Update 2 -- consolidation accumulation or distribution ? 

As edited in the chart, yesterday price try to go again to R 1 with a spike but failed & return back to Rs 334 mark. If you are thinking that price is unable to cross R 1 then it will turn bearish, be cautious, look @ moving averages. Now 20 dma is also showing bullishness with 10 dma & price successfully made a base between Rs 333 to 335.50. This is sign of consolidation accumulation & not of distribution. On the other hand as time is passing resistance line of the channel is coming down, as a result 334 mark is now above the resistance line of the channel. As a rule of polarity, now resistance line of the channel will work as minor support for the price. 

Strategy 

So we should change our mindset & wait for price crossing Rs 340 mark and sustain there, then we can take long positions for the tgt of 350 + . If price go below Rs 330 mark that will be good sign for shorters. Thank you, wish you happy trading. Keep visiting.

Crude, history is repeating

Isn't it amazing ? History is repeating on daily charts. I have nothing to say in words. See the attached chart & you yourself can understand, where it is heading.

Crude heading towards resistance point

                      Crude resistance@  46 dolor or Rs 3,100

Channel 

As shown in the attached chart, crude has resistance @ 46 dolors or Rs 3100 mcx. Since 08/07/2016 it moving in a narrow channel, touched support line @ 2 occasions namely a & c points and currently trying to breach support line @ d point. It has to face resistance @ 45.80 and 46 ( Rs 3100 ) dolor point which is shown in blue line. If it successfully break the r1 & r2 , then it will return to some bullish mode otherwise it will return to support line with faster speed and try to breach it downward. 

                                         Moving Averages 

As shown in the chart, 5 dma crossed 20 dma on upside. Keep in mind that, this is hourly chart.

                                                 Strategy 

Watch carefully the levels given here with the chart. If price take resistance @ given points then it should return to support line and try to break it. If that happens then it will go directly 50 to 80 Rs downward. If it break 46 dolor upwards, then little bullish rally will start.

Use trailing stoploss method after entering in position to book profits and protect capital.

Thank you.

Updated chart 

As seen in the attached chart, crude price has taken resistance near Rs 3,100 and now it is trying to go up. Lets see, what will happen ?

2nd Update 

As seen in the chart, crude price break the resistance placed around 46 dolor or Rs 3,100 in good way.