Crude - waiting for a good chance to enter short trade

2nd feb 2017, 11.25 am, Yes, I am watching crude movement since last few days and waiting for a good chance to enter a short position. Look @ the chart carefully and only then read.

From 27 th Jan 2017 Crude is in a down move. I draw a channel to show the down move. Price broke the channel resistance line around 1st Feb. Point to be noted that this is hourly chart. After breaking channel upwards and gained Rs 30 & made a high around 3620. Again it dropped but took support of upper channel line. Again this rule is proved that," if price broke resistance line and stay above it for considerable time, the resistance line becomes support line." Here you can see the same is happened. Rs 3640 & 3700 is the resistance but if price break last low of 3560 then it will go to take support from channel line , which is going down & down as the time is passing away. I show this down moving tgt in red arrows. This is not trading call. Just for info.

buy copper

buy copper @ cmp 399 for the tgt of 409, positional call. sl should be 394, wish you best luck.

Update 25 jan 2017 -- Tgt  nearly achived, enjoy profits. thank you. Profit Rs 10000 on single lot. Enjoy.

Natural Gas

Enter new short position in NG. Positional trade. Expected tgt 190.
Update 1 -- 23 jan 2017, 11.42 am , cmp is 217, wait for the given tgt of 190.
Update 2 -- 31 jan 2017, 03.44 pm , 

After so many up & downs, finally we are in profit. As shown in the chart with blue color arrow, we enter in short position between Rs 228 -- 224. Now we are in new contract & latest price of NG is 216. If we take Rs 224 as shorting price, ( which is lowest price of the day on which we enter the trade ) we have 6 points of profit in our hand. But I suggest you to wait for tgt. Thank you. I am predicting that after breaking 212 on downside, NG will touch our tgt of 190 within few hours. 

update 3 --  see the chart below. NG is @ 213. Our shorting price is between 228 -- 224. we are in more than 10 points profit, that means if we sold a single lot, then we have more than Rs 12,500 in our hand now. I suggest to wait for tgt of Rs 190. After breaching 212 mark NG should tumble down to Rs 190 in no time. 

Update 4 - 3/2/2017,  01.57 pm

See the magic of dow theory. Lower tops & lower highs. If the price go below 2nd low of 210.50 and stay there for a while , then it will tumble down very very fast. I suggest to hold the short position for the prior mentioned tgt of 190. Jay shriram.

Update 5, 8th Feb 2017, 05.02 pm

NG Price should go to touch 202. It has support there, otherwise it is in downtrend. Yes we are in a short position since last 20 days, but we are in a good profit also. Look @ the chart study.

update 6, 10/02/2017, 06.27 pm,

Look @ the chart given below, NG price is trading on support line of 202, if it break it, then its good for us. But if it take support then it will bounce back, so keep the sl of 206 for our profitmaking short position. thank you.

Update 7 -- 13th Feb 2017, 12.27 pm

Cmp of NG is Rs 200 around. We entered short 24 days ago. Now we have 24 to 28 points profit in hand, that means more than Rs 30000 profit in single lot.

Book all the profit & exit the trade. Jay Shriram. Trade closed.

Short term trading idea -- zinc

CMP is 152.40, go for short, quantity 1 lot, Place sl order ( buy order ) @ 154 for quantity 2 lot ( double ). If sl hit then tgt is 156 for remained 1 lot. If sl will not hit then on down side you can get 2 points.

Update 1, 8th Aug, 10.40 Pm

Zinc price is @ the same mark 152.40, nothing to update. There is risk of gap up opening or gap down opening. If it opens gap down then it will profitable for us. But it behave against the same with gap up opening we will be in loss because there is no system of gtc sl order. So only lion hearted traders hold the position, remaining traders exit cost to cost @ cmp. Thank you, good night. Jay Shriram.

Update 2, Aug 9th, 06.30 Pm

Cmp is 151.40, book complete profit & exit the trade. Profit from this trade is only 1 point. Jay Shriram.

call of the week - NG - 7th Aug 2016

           Call of the week - NG - 7th aug 2016

Figure 1 -- NG hourly

Figure 2 - NG hourly with trendline

Figure 3 -- NG symmetrical on hourly 

Go long on NG @ cmp 186 around, short term trades hould keep sl 182.50 for the tgt of 192 around. For positional traders sl is placed @ 178.50 for the tgt 1 -- 192, tgt 2 --- 197, tgt 3 ---- 200 + and much more.

Now lokk @ the chart very carefully, it looks bearish and only bearish at first sight. Now look at second chart & you can see that price is taking support at trendline ( indicated in circles ) & by doing so price is making higher bottoms. This clearly indicates that bears are not confident about much deeper fall. Actually Ng is sensitive to weather reports on demand side and inventory data on supply side. Both fronts are now in favour of bulls. First time in last one year, storage growth turns negative. Since last 3 weeks inventory data is showing reducing supply. But Most of world is not responded this in good way. I belive that NG is underpriced commodity. This is because, in last full year, each and every time NG tried to go up , finally it failed. But this time there is fundamental change in demand supply side.

I request , please dont enter in NG trade , if you are very short term trader or habitual of buying huge positions. Ng trading is for positional traders and jobbers only. Buy little position with big sl, keep 15 day timeframe in mind. I feel that, coming Thursday will inventory data will push NG upward , above resistance of 197 to 200.  For more fundamental info, visit following link ...   http://in.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-dropped-to-close-at-191-200146220
And last chart is showing that, Ng price is about to end the process of symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern indicates continuation of trend & as wee know that the trend is positive. This pattern is fulfilled all the requirement to be a symmetrical triangle, touched 2 times to resistance line, 2 times to support line. Made 2 times lower tops and higher bottoms. So it is perfect case of symmetrical triangle. To know more about it, type symmetrical triangle or coil on google and click.
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Update of post 

To read latest update on demand supply estimates & prediction of inventory, you can visit following link. The article is written by Robert Boslego , he is wel known energy guy.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3996966-natural-gas-storage-weekly-estimation-errors

Update 1 > 8th Aug 2016, 01.26 Pm

Today NG opened @ 184.50, as a result our buy price is same. Cmp is around 183.60, short term traders should keep sl @ 182.50, for positional traders sl is placed @ 178.50. Thank you 

Update 2 > 8th Aug 2016

Read latest report on demand supply by reuters commodities on following link.    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-natgas-kemp-column-idUSKCN10J0HR?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
                                   Update 3 -- 11 pm 8th Aug
We are exact @ the same place from where we start this trade. cmp is 184 around. We entered the long around 184.50. Remember I warned in original post ( in red colored ) that," NG trading is not for short term traders. Volatility ate short term traders sl. Low is 181.40 & high is 185. Carry on position, as thursday will come near &  near bears cut their short positions. Keep in mind that, you should have to hold this trade for many days. Otherwise exit from this trade @ cmp , which around our cost.
                                       Update 4 -- 09.05 Pm Aug 9th
Sl hit, trade closed. Loss of 6 points in this trade. Sorry for that.

Call of the week -- crude

Call of the week, 7th aug 2016

Go for buy crude above 2822, only if cross & sustained above the figure. for the big tgt of 8121. Or sell below 2715 if breach and sustained below, tgt will be big and open. Keep sl of 2780 for the long position & 2760 for short position. Between these two levels, there is "no trading zone" for me because of no conformation of trend.

Crude price tried 3 times to cross 2820 but failed. As a result this figure convert in solid resistance. Same thing happened about 2720 level. On hourly chart, 5 candles got support there. As a result this level convert in strong support.

Looking @ this scenario, I will enter in trade only after breaching of either level, may be short or long. I am not at bullish or bearish side. I want to be with right side.

I will update this call. Keep watching, for timely update follow me on twitter & G+ & subscribe via email.

 Update 1 -- 8th Aug 2016, 01.08 Pm

Buy call activated above 2820 & cmp is 2835, now trail the sl to 2800 from 2780. thank you.

Update 2 -- 8th  Aug 2016, 03.57 Pm

Trail sl to cost which is 2820, cmp is 2843, book partial profit around 2850. Now we are in safe chair, enjoy the profitable trade. For latest updates, subscribe this blog via email, follow me on twitter & G+.

Update 3 -- 8th Aug, 06.55 Pm

CMP is 2855, trail sl to 8235 from 2820, now we can call it as profit lock.

Update 4 - 8th Aug, 07.08 Pm

CMP is 2865, trail sl to 2845 from 2835, enjoy profits.

Update 5 - 8th Aug, 10.21 Pm

Trail your profit lock from 2845 to 2865, cmp is 2882. This position is in 60 points profit now.

Update 6 - 8th Aug, 10.43 pm

Kindly trail profit lock to 2870 from 2865. cmp is 2885 now. Our profit is 65 points till now.

Update 6, Aug 9th, 04.55 Pm

Our sl ( profit lock ) hit, as a result trade is closed with 65 points profit. Jay Shriram.

Holiday special --- Useful link to get daily trading levels.

Useful link to get trading levels and trends

Friends below given link is named earnometer is one useful link for traders. By clicking on it you entered on a page showing mcx commodity analysis. In blue color you can see gold, silver etc. After clicking on the same, you will get intraday trading levels, info about intraday trends and much more info.

I try to give some extra knowledge on Saturday or Sunday. For example I gave bull bear power indicator, and some other patterns prior to this. A part of that effort, today I gave the same link. Hope you will find this useful. Copy & paste it in your browser and click enter button. For latest update, subscribe me via email, follow on twitter & G+, Thank you. On Monday buy crude above 2820 or Sell it below 2720 for the tgt of 2450.

http://earnometer.com/commodity/exchg1.html