NG - Bearish Harami is developing

Bearish Harami is developing on NG daily chart.

7th Mar 2017, 07.00 pm

You can see a large green bullish candle showing yesterdays price movement of NG. Last little red candle is showing today's price movement. Yesterday high was around 197 and low was around 188. Today's high low is 193 and 189 around. 

Price is gapped down today. today it opened at 193 while yesterday close was 196. This gap down opening is important aspect for creating bearish harami. Till this moment NG price is unable to move higher in respect of yesterdays green candle. This again confirm that, bearish harami is developing. 

Ng is fundamentally very sensitive to weather forecast, something like snow storm is on the cards. But is is factored in.

One can think about all this and take decision. Thank you.

Update 2, 9th Mar 2017, 11.59 am,

One of my blog reader Mrs Madhuri Yadav sent me this chart and some writing. It is very correct that, before bearish harami candles appear on the chart, there was a doji. Read what she says.

Bearish reversal patterns can form with one or more candlesticks; most require bearish confirmation. The actual reversal indicates that selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure for one or more days, but it remains unclear whether or not sustained selling or lack of buyers will continue to push prices lower. Without confirmation, many of these patterns would be considered neutral and merely indicate a potential resistancelevel at best. Bearish confirmation means further downside follow through, such as a gap down, long black candlestick or high volume decline. Because candlestick patterns are short-term and usually effective for 1-2 weeks, bearish confirmation should come within 1-3 days.

update 3, 9th March , 12.17 pm
it is interesting to see the fight between bulls and bears. Winter season ends but still bulls are in hope that gas demand will pick up. The are taking support from weather forecast published on 7th march, which indicates some snowfall and little storm somewhere in North East America.But price action shows that any upward movement in NG price cant sustain at high, soon it tumble down. How many times this can happen ?? Or bulls are expecting new big rally is going to start? New storage season is started. 

Shorting NG is work of cool minded guy. Need lot of patience to earn from NG.
Nothing to say more, today is Thursday and there will be lot of volatility at evening because of data.
thanking you, Jay Shriram.

sell silver @ cmp 42380

sell silver @ cmp 42380 for the tgt of 41600 with the sl 42,900. Jay Shriram.

You can see that, silver is in down trend. and recent up move towards 42790 was just a reaction or retracement of fall. On down side, there is a support of 41980 and after that, only support placed @ around 41,500, which is shown in the second chart. ( silver daily ). 
This is only for study purpose. If you like it, then subscribe through email, follow me on twitter and google+ for timely updates. You can trade it on paper only and enjoy it. Jay Shriram.

update 1 , 08.45 pm, 7th Mar.

Friends I booked whole profit at cmp 41930 and exited the trade. 

Update 2 --- tgt achived. 8th March

What is jobbing ? & how can we earn from it on mcx platform ?

Can we generate profit  from doing jobbing on mcx platform ?

Yes, it is sure that," we can generate some money from doing jobbing using mcx platform. I use 'crude' for explaining the same. First of all we should know the concept of jobbing. What we always see in the name of intraday trading is not 'trading' nor 'jobbing' but a tool to destroy capital. Jobbing is very short term buying & selling or selling or buying of a script or commodity with the intent of generating quick profits. Jobbing consist speculative nature. 

I use crude hourly chart to show," how we can use 'nymex' crude price to do jobbing in mcx crude. Lets look at the chart first.

I used candles to show mcx crude price and line to show Nymex crude price. You can see a blue vertical line no 1. Look carefully, this line cross a green candle. This green candle shows mcx crude price open 3551, high 3556, low 3551 and close 3555. This is very recent chart, I just draw it and saw the price action happened. This candle told us that mcx crude remains within only 5 point range for that 1 hour while Nymex crude went down considerably.

My friends, this is the chance for jobbers, you can sell crude here and cover it with very little profit. 

There are some things which can effect your calculations. One of these is currency rate. On Odin software, we can see that, exchange always generates messages about difference in commodity price ( domestic & international ). 

One should use live 'Nymex chart ' for this purpose. there are more chances in less traded commodity like gold 1 kg lot, nickel.

You can earn 3 to 4 points in each trade, if you study it and develop your skills with latest instruments. Instead of doing intraday trading, think about doing jobbing.

There are more things to write about, but I stop this article here. Interested reader should use his skill's and try it on paper for many times. Only after then, you can understand --- " what is jobbing ?"

Gold, a vacuum and all gaps will be filled.

gap should be filled, sooner or latter, see hourly chart.

You can easily see that there are 2 gaps created by gold price on hourly chart between Rs 29,450 to 29,500. First is created in its upward journey and second is recently created when gold price broke neckline of head and shoulder pattern to start downward journey. On 23rd Feb it went up creating gap and made head and shoulder pattern there. After that it opened gap down on 28th Feb. This means it takes 5 days to create head and shoulder pattern. 

There are four types of gaps, common, break away, run away and exhaustion. First gap in this chart is exhaustion gap because it happens near the end of up trend. Second gap at the starting of down trend is clearly breakaway gap. 

I used volume indicator in this chart to judge the type of gap. There is old saying that," Gap's will be filled." But we can't trade against the trend. trend is king of price movement. We will wait and watch this king of commodity (gold ). Only after completion of down trend and after clear confirmation, we will enter in to trade. There is nothing much left for positional traders in this down move. But I suggest you to include this commodity in your daily study. You will get good price for entering in bullish trade. Thank you, Jay shriram.
If you like this article, subscribe through email, twitter and google + to get regular timely updates from this blog. It is free always.

copper, on the edge of tumbling down ???

Copper, @ the edge of tumbling down ????

Study this daily copper chart levels carefully. Only after that, read the article.

From 16 th Dec 2016 onward copper is moving upward as shown in channel drawn in the daily copper chart. On 23rd feb 2017 copper break support line of this upward moving channel. Stay below the channel for last two days. There is always chances that, the commodity enter back in to channel after breaking these types of channels in either direction. But the rule is that if price broke channel downward then prior low is support & if price go below that support line, that is the confirmation of new trend.

In this copper case, copper came out of channel and kissed S1 on 23rd Feb 2017. Next day price went up creating a green candle & closed @ 394 rupees mark.

Prediction -- If copper break S1 placed @ 386 & remain below it for little time, it can go towards next support of 363. If it fails to take support @ this S2 then we can expect free fall of price till S3 which is placed @ 310.

Warning -- As this is daily chart, prediction can take time according to difference between time frame of hourly, daily chart. Usually traders use hourly chart, so keep in mind that this is daily chart. Second thing is that, after breaching the support line, one should wait for some time and make confirmation that price actually broke the support. This is essential for Safe Commodity Trades.

Hope you find this article helpful.
You can read this article on investing.com also. Link is -- https://in.investing.com/analysis/copper,-will-it-take-down-move--200176812?preview_fp_admin_1234=this_is_1234

Update 1, 27th Feb 2017, 05.50 p.m

symmetrical triangle on copper 30 min chart ? 

The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.

While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. 

Here we can see a downtrend in copper price. so I have nothing to write more about. You are wise enough to take yur decesions accordingly.

Read more about  symmetrical Triangle on following link ....  http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation

Update 2, 27th Feb, 08.41 p.m

Update 3, 28th Feb, 12.45 am, copper daily chart

See, why I gave warning to wait for the confirmation. Copper took resistance from this confirmation line and turn southward.

| द्यूतं छलयतामस्मि तेजस्तेजस्विनामहम्‌ ।

| द्यूतं छलयतामस्मि तेजस्तेजस्विनामहम्‌ ।| भावार्थ : मैं छल करने वालों में जूआ और प्रभावशाली पुरुषों का प्रभाव हूँ । श्रीमद्‍भगवद्‍गीता >अथ दशमोऽध्याय:- विभूतियोग

उपर जो श्रीमद्भगवद्गीता जीका श्र्लोक लिखा है उसका मतलब यही है कि, " मै चोरोंमे द्यूत ( जुआ, speculation ) हू |" श्री भगवंत विभूतीयोग मे बताते है की," सबसे बडा चोर जुआ है | सबके सामने चोरी हो जाती है, लेकीन कोई चोर को पकड नही सकता |  

आप सोच रहे होंगे कि," आज ये आदमी शास्त्रीजी क्यों बन गया ?", मुझे रोज बहोतसे इमेल आते है | सारे के सारे इंट्राडे मे लॉस खाये हुए लोग ही होते है | मुझे आजतक ( from last 18 yrs ) एक भी ऐसा आदमी नही मिला, जिसने इस इंट्राडे ट्रेडिंग नामक जुए मे नियमित रूप से पैसा कमाया हो | फिरभी लोग ये गंदा काम करते रहते है | क्यों करते है ये उन्हिको मालूम होगा |

इससे तो अच्छा है कि, लॉटरी खेले | जैसे मिझोराम गुड मॉरनिंग, नागालँड गुडनाईट, सिक्कीम सरकार गुड आफ्टरनून |  लॉटरी मे एक बात अच्छी है | आपके जितने के चान्सेस ५०/५० % है | क्योंकी डिजीट १० होते है, ० से लेके ९ तक. अगर आप ५ अलग अलग नंबर कि  टीकीट निकालोगे तो आपका जितने का चान्स ५० % हो जाता है |

रही बात commodity ट्रेडिंग कि, तो इसमे ट्रेंड पकडना ही सबसे बडी कला है | जैसे कि NG उपर से नीचे कि तरफ जा रहा है, उसमे तेजी खतम हो गयी है , ये समज मे आना बहोत जरुरी है | एकबार आपने सही ट्रेंड को धुंड निकाला तो फिर आप किंग बनते हो | वो कमोडिटी आपको को profit मे ले जाती है | दिन गुजरते है, हफ्ते निकल जाते है, महिने निकल जाते है , आपका profit धीरे धीरे कम ज्यादा करते बढता रहता है |

अगर आपको ट्रेंड पकडना नही आता, तो ये पोझिशनल ट्रेडिंग आप नही कर सकते | गलत दिशा मे पोझिशन लेके अगर उसको चिपकके बैठे , stoploss नही युज किया तो आपका कॅपिटल खत्म हो जाता है |  

जरुरत नही है की, रोज ट्रेडिंग किया हि जाये | १५ दिन २० दिन कोई ट्रेड नही किया तो आपका का जाता है ? परफेक्ट ट्रेडिंग सेटअप मिले तभी ट्रेड करे | ट्रेडिंग जुआ नही है , ये एक व्यापार है |

इसिलीये मैने ब्लॉग के शुरवात मे हि, गिताजी का श्र्लोक डाल रखा है |

किसीको बुरा लगा हो तो बडे दिल से क्षमा किजीयेगा ," वैसे भी मै अभी परिपक्व नही हुआ हुं | सिर्फ ४१ उमर है मेरी , मुझे और थोडा समय चाहिये , धन्यवाद "

Latest crude study

Some chart study on crude

crude is trying to break the support line of upward channel. If it break support of 3580 and stay below it for some time, then it will start falling downwards. Next support is placed @ 3530 @ 3460. 

On the other hand, if crude again entered in channel & move above 3668 then it will enter bullish zone & try to go towards 3750.

Again remind you that this is not trading call, just for info. Jay Shriram