Short term trading idea -- zinc

CMP is 152.40, go for short, quantity 1 lot, Place sl order ( buy order ) @ 154 for quantity 2 lot ( double ). If sl hit then tgt is 156 for remained 1 lot. If sl will not hit then on down side you can get 2 points.

Update 1, 8th Aug, 10.40 Pm

Zinc price is @ the same mark 152.40, nothing to update. There is risk of gap up opening or gap down opening. If it opens gap down then it will profitable for us. But it behave against the same with gap up opening we will be in loss because there is no system of gtc sl order. So only lion hearted traders hold the position, remaining traders exit cost to cost @ cmp. Thank you, good night. Jay Shriram.

Update 2, Aug 9th, 06.30 Pm

Cmp is 151.40, book complete profit & exit the trade. Profit from this trade is only 1 point. Jay Shriram.

call of the week - NG - 7th Aug 2016

           Call of the week - NG - 7th aug 2016

Figure 1 -- NG hourly

Figure 2 - NG hourly with trendline

Figure 3 -- NG symmetrical on hourly 

Go long on NG @ cmp 186 around, short term trades hould keep sl 182.50 for the tgt of 192 around. For positional traders sl is placed @ 178.50 for the tgt 1 -- 192, tgt 2 --- 197, tgt 3 ---- 200 + and much more.

Now lokk @ the chart very carefully, it looks bearish and only bearish at first sight. Now look at second chart & you can see that price is taking support at trendline ( indicated in circles ) & by doing so price is making higher bottoms. This clearly indicates that bears are not confident about much deeper fall. Actually Ng is sensitive to weather reports on demand side and inventory data on supply side. Both fronts are now in favour of bulls. First time in last one year, storage growth turns negative. Since last 3 weeks inventory data is showing reducing supply. But Most of world is not responded this in good way. I belive that NG is underpriced commodity. This is because, in last full year, each and every time NG tried to go up , finally it failed. But this time there is fundamental change in demand supply side.

I request , please dont enter in NG trade , if you are very short term trader or habitual of buying huge positions. Ng trading is for positional traders and jobbers only. Buy little position with big sl, keep 15 day timeframe in mind. I feel that, coming Thursday will inventory data will push NG upward , above resistance of 197 to 200.  For more fundamental info, visit following link ...   http://in.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-dropped-to-close-at-191-200146220
And last chart is showing that, Ng price is about to end the process of symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern indicates continuation of trend & as wee know that the trend is positive. This pattern is fulfilled all the requirement to be a symmetrical triangle, touched 2 times to resistance line, 2 times to support line. Made 2 times lower tops and higher bottoms. So it is perfect case of symmetrical triangle. To know more about it, type symmetrical triangle or coil on google and click.
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Update of post 

To read latest update on demand supply estimates & prediction of inventory, you can visit following link. The article is written by Robert Boslego , he is wel known energy guy.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3996966-natural-gas-storage-weekly-estimation-errors

Update 1 > 8th Aug 2016, 01.26 Pm

Today NG opened @ 184.50, as a result our buy price is same. Cmp is around 183.60, short term traders should keep sl @ 182.50, for positional traders sl is placed @ 178.50. Thank you 

Update 2 > 8th Aug 2016

Read latest report on demand supply by reuters commodities on following link.    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-natgas-kemp-column-idUSKCN10J0HR?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
                                   Update 3 -- 11 pm 8th Aug
We are exact @ the same place from where we start this trade. cmp is 184 around. We entered the long around 184.50. Remember I warned in original post ( in red colored ) that," NG trading is not for short term traders. Volatility ate short term traders sl. Low is 181.40 & high is 185. Carry on position, as thursday will come near &  near bears cut their short positions. Keep in mind that, you should have to hold this trade for many days. Otherwise exit from this trade @ cmp , which around our cost.
                                       Update 4 -- 09.05 Pm Aug 9th
Sl hit, trade closed. Loss of 6 points in this trade. Sorry for that.

Call of the week -- crude

Call of the week, 7th aug 2016

Go for buy crude above 2822, only if cross & sustained above the figure. for the big tgt of 8121. Or sell below 2715 if breach and sustained below, tgt will be big and open. Keep sl of 2780 for the long position & 2760 for short position. Between these two levels, there is "no trading zone" for me because of no conformation of trend.

Crude price tried 3 times to cross 2820 but failed. As a result this figure convert in solid resistance. Same thing happened about 2720 level. On hourly chart, 5 candles got support there. As a result this level convert in strong support.

Looking @ this scenario, I will enter in trade only after breaching of either level, may be short or long. I am not at bullish or bearish side. I want to be with right side.

I will update this call. Keep watching, for timely update follow me on twitter & G+ & subscribe via email.

 Update 1 -- 8th Aug 2016, 01.08 Pm

Buy call activated above 2820 & cmp is 2835, now trail the sl to 2800 from 2780. thank you.

Update 2 -- 8th  Aug 2016, 03.57 Pm

Trail sl to cost which is 2820, cmp is 2843, book partial profit around 2850. Now we are in safe chair, enjoy the profitable trade. For latest updates, subscribe this blog via email, follow me on twitter & G+.

Update 3 -- 8th Aug, 06.55 Pm

CMP is 2855, trail sl to 8235 from 2820, now we can call it as profit lock.

Update 4 - 8th Aug, 07.08 Pm

CMP is 2865, trail sl to 2845 from 2835, enjoy profits.

Update 5 - 8th Aug, 10.21 Pm

Trail your profit lock from 2845 to 2865, cmp is 2882. This position is in 60 points profit now.

Update 6 - 8th Aug, 10.43 pm

Kindly trail profit lock to 2870 from 2865. cmp is 2885 now. Our profit is 65 points till now.

Update 6, Aug 9th, 04.55 Pm

Our sl ( profit lock ) hit, as a result trade is closed with 65 points profit. Jay Shriram.

Holiday special --- Useful link to get daily trading levels.

Useful link to get trading levels and trends

Friends below given link is named earnometer is one useful link for traders. By clicking on it you entered on a page showing mcx commodity analysis. In blue color you can see gold, silver etc. After clicking on the same, you will get intraday trading levels, info about intraday trends and much more info.

I try to give some extra knowledge on Saturday or Sunday. For example I gave bull bear power indicator, and some other patterns prior to this. A part of that effort, today I gave the same link. Hope you will find this useful. Copy & paste it in your browser and click enter button. For latest update, subscribe me via email, follow on twitter & G+, Thank you. On Monday buy crude above 2820 or Sell it below 2720 for the tgt of 2450.

http://earnometer.com/commodity/exchg1.html

crude done the 78 % retracement of prior fall from 7800 to 2634 @ 2768

Crude 78% retracement of prior fall done

 As  seen in the chart, crude done its 78 % retracement of prior fall from 7800 to 2634 @ 2768 today. Now it should travel again towards 2450 which is final tgt of downmove.

If it will go above 2770 in good way and sustain then, crue will turn bullish.

Update 5th Aug 2016, 07.07 Pm

crude hourly chart 

As said in the original post , crude went above 2770 and sustain in good way near 2800 mark. It turns bullish for short term now, but it should cross 2817 mark, if failed to do so, there will be double top formation. This attached hourly chart shows us fibonacci retracement of fall from 3120 to 2640. Now we cant think about 7800 to 2634 fall because price move above 78% retracement and entered in short term bullish zone in respect to prior chart pattern.

Now price is around 38% retracement of fall from 3120 to 2640 which is 2817. It should cross above this level, if failed to do so , there will be creation of double top and that will work as solid resistance. 2720 is level to watch, if crude go below it, then double top formation will come in place and we can expect free fall of this commodity.

Silver @ its support, is it good level to buy ??

 Is it good level to buy silver ? 

 As seen in the attached hourly chart, silver opened gap down today with bearish sentiment in the minds most of traders. But we should use brain in spite of mind with the help of chart levels. 

Fibonacci Retracement

Prior rally was from Rs 45800 to 48450. As shown in chart, 61 % retracement of this upmove is placed around 46840. Today's low is 46875 . So we can say that 61 % retracement is done by silver.

Support level 

Support level is placed around 46950 and price is trading above it and sustained above the level. This happening is making double bottom on the support level.

Conclusion 

One can go for buy positionaly with low quantity with the sl below 46600 because silver looks to be taken support @ 61 % retracement level. Risk reward ratio is good. On upside after breking resistance of 48500 it can fly up to 50000 .

Update 5th aug 2016

CMP is 46733, yesterday silver opened gap down & broke our support level placed @ 46950. At the time of posting this post, price was 47,185 around. Loss of 235 points in this call or analysis. Sorry about that. 

Crude intraday wave count

Intraday wave count crude 5 min chart

This is purely for intrady & for very short term, 5 min chart.

On the same day after publishing this view, crude made hgh of 2738 within 30 minutes

Fibonacci Retracement of crude

Fibonacci Retracement of crude 

 As we can see in attached daily chart, there is fib retracement shown in colors. From Rs 1860 to Rs 3398 crude made a rally. Now it near 50 % retracement 2629. Rs 2450 is 61.8 % retracement, which can be tgt now .

I solve the problem with feeburner

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