Sunday, 7 August 2016

call of the week - NG - 7th Aug 2016

           Call of the week - NG - 7th aug 2016
Figure 1 -- NG hourly

Figure 2 - NG hourly with trendline
Figure 3 -- NG symmetrical on hourly 


Go long on NG @ cmp 186 around, short term trades hould keep sl 182.50 for the tgt of 192 around. For positional traders sl is placed @ 178.50 for the tgt 1 -- 192, tgt 2 --- 197, tgt 3 ---- 200 + and much more.
Now lokk @ the chart very carefully, it looks bearish and only bearish at first sight. Now look at second chart & you can see that price is taking support at trendline ( indicated in circles ) & by doing so price is making higher bottoms. This clearly indicates that bears are not confident about much deeper fall. Actually Ng is sensitive to weather reports on demand side and inventory data on supply side. Both fronts are now in favour of bulls. First time in last one year, storage growth turns negative. Since last 3 weeks inventory data is showing reducing supply. But Most of world is not responded this in good way. I belive that NG is underpriced commodity. This is because, in last full year, each and every time NG tried to go up , finally it failed. But this time there is fundamental change in demand supply side.
I request , please dont enter in NG trade , if you are very short term trader or habitual of buying huge positions. Ng trading is for positional traders and jobbers only. Buy little position with big sl, keep 15 day timeframe in mind. I feel that, coming Thursday will inventory data will push NG upward , above resistance of 197 to 200.  For more fundamental info, visit following link ...   http://in.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-dropped-to-close-at-191-200146220
And last chart is showing that, Ng price is about to end the process of symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern indicates continuation of trend & as wee know that the trend is positive. This pattern is fulfilled all the requirement to be a symmetrical triangle, touched 2 times to resistance line, 2 times to support line. Made 2 times lower tops and higher bottoms. So it is perfect case of symmetrical triangle. To know more about it, type symmetrical triangle or coil on google and click.
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Update of post 
To read latest update on demand supply estimates & prediction of inventory, you can visit following link. The article is written by Robert Boslego , he is wel known energy guy.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3996966-natural-gas-storage-weekly-estimation-errors
Update 1 > 8th Aug 2016, 01.26 Pm
Today NG opened @ 184.50, as a result our buy price is same. Cmp is around 183.60, short term traders should keep sl @ 182.50, for positional traders sl is placed @ 178.50. Thank you 
Update 2 > 8th Aug 2016
Read latest report on demand supply by reuters commodities on following link.    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-natgas-kemp-column-idUSKCN10J0HR?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
                                   Update 3 -- 11 pm 8th Aug
We are exact @ the same place from where we start this trade. cmp is 184 around. We entered the long around 184.50. Remember I warned in original post ( in red colored ) that," NG trading is not for short term traders. Volatility ate short term traders sl. Low is 181.40 & high is 185. Carry on position, as thursday will come near &  near bears cut their short positions. Keep in mind that, you should have to hold this trade for many days. Otherwise exit from this trade @ cmp , which around our cost.
                                       Update 4 -- 09.05 Pm Aug 9th
Sl hit, trade closed. Loss of 6 points in this trade. Sorry for that.



Call of the week -- crude

Call of the week, 7th aug 2016


Go for buy crude above 2822, only if cross & sustained above the figure. for the big tgt of 8121. Or sell below 2715 if breach and sustained below, tgt will be big and open. Keep sl of 2780 for the long position & 2760 for short position. Between these two levels, there is "no trading zone" for me because of no conformation of trend.
Crude price tried 3 times to cross 2820 but failed. As a result this figure convert in solid resistance. Same thing happened about 2720 level. On hourly chart, 5 candles got support there. As a result this level convert in strong support.
Looking @ this scenario, I will enter in trade only after breaching of either level, may be short or long. I am not at bullish or bearish side. I want to be with right side.
I will update this call. Keep watching, for timely update follow me on twitter & G+ & subscribe via email.
 Update 1 -- 8th Aug 2016, 01.08 Pm
Buy call activated above 2820 & cmp is 2835, now trail the sl to 2800 from 2780. thank you.
Update 2 -- 8th  Aug 2016, 03.57 Pm
Trail sl to cost which is 2820, cmp is 2843, book partial profit around 2850. Now we are in safe chair, enjoy the profitable trade. For latest updates, subscribe this blog via email, follow me on twitter & G+.
Update 3 -- 8th Aug, 06.55 Pm
CMP is 2855, trail sl to 8235 from 2820, now we can call it as profit lock.
Update 4 - 8th Aug, 07.08 Pm
CMP is 2865, trail sl to 2845 from 2835, enjoy profits.


Update 5 - 8th Aug, 10.21 Pm
Trail your profit lock from 2845 to 2865, cmp is 2882. This position is in 60 points profit now.
Update 6 - 8th Aug, 10.43 pm
Kindly trail profit lock to 2870 from 2865. cmp is 2885 now. Our profit is 65 points till now.
Update 6, Aug 9th, 04.55 Pm
Our sl ( profit lock ) hit, as a result trade is closed with 65 points profit. Jay Shriram.