NG in symmetrical broadening wedge

29/11/2017,
06.11 pm India.

NG daily

As shown in this NG daily chart, price is moving in the symmetrical broadening wedge or horizontal megaphone. You can see price is in the downtrend at the start of this megaphone. ( I draw a blue circle around it ). As a rule .. ascending megaphone breakout is downward & downward megaphone breakout is upwards. But here we can see the horizontal megaphone. now how to acknowledge or guess the breakout direction ? there are two ways. First is continuation of the trend & we can easily see that in the blue circle , price trend is downward. Second method to guess breakout direction is to judge price movement is top heavy or bottom heavy ? . In this case, price is not top heavy or bottom heavy. 

NG weekly chart 

This is the another reason why I am bearish on NG ? On weekly chart , price is still moving in H & S. It is not violated the pattern yet. Last wave is going on & on , making the pattern dirty. But technically it is H&S. price should go towards neckline. It created megaphone on weekly chart also. So trade accordingly. Jay Shriram. 

Update 1, Tuesday 05/12/2017, 05.14 IST

ng daily chart 

Now , we are in very good profit. Book half profit & trail the sl to ctc. Jay Shriram.

Update 2, Thursday Dec 7, o7.05 ist

We shorted NG around Rs 207 mcx price, now we are in very good profit. CMP on mcx is 182.70 around. Rs 15/ single lot profit, that means Rs more than 18000 rupees profit in single lot. Book full profit & exit the trade. Today is inventory day, no need to take any risk. Enjoy profits saying Jay Shriram.

Crude towards channel support line

06.30 p.m,
15/11/2017,

As shown in the crude daily chart, price is moving in a upward moving channel. 61% retracement of the prior upmove is placed at 52.42 mark, which is placed at channel supportline also. So , we can expect the price to touch the support line of the channel or 61 % mark which is placed at 52.42. Resistance line of the channel will work as resistance.

Point to be noted is that," I am doing this analysis for my hobby."

update 1,09.29 p.m

As expected, after inventory data, price came down till 38 % retracement, will it take support here or go towards 61 % ? interesting to watch the show.

Update 2,  saturday 02.06 pm

As shown in the chart, you can see that crude price took support exactly at 38 % fib retracement & turned upwards. Price also went above the resistance line of the channel. So friends, now we can enter in to bullish position. Dont expect crude price to turn around and touch support line of the channel. Next resistance is 57.80 which is prior high & support is now at the resistance line of the channel as the rule of polarity, now resistance line should work as support line. I am closing this post, thank you , Jay Shriram.

update 3,  24/11/2007

As said in the prior update, price went up & break resistance of prior high. CMP is 58.81. , book full profits & exxit.

Rising wedge on gold hourly

09/11/2017,
06.03 pm.
gold hourly chart.

Looking at this hourly chart,, we can easily see rising wedge on gold price. Don't take it as higher top higher bottom formation because bottom's are also higher in nature. This is the reason behind my suspect of future fall after price will get resistance at resistance line of the wedge.

Warning -- this is not trading recommendation. I did this analysis for hobby only.

update 1 ... 08.05 pm 

As you can see in the chart, we shorted this commodity nearly at the top i.e. around 1289 dolors. Now it is trading at 1284. So place the stoploss at cost to cost and enjoy the show. thank you.

Update .. 2, 11.00 am, 10/11/2017

Yesterday, we shorted gold at 1289 & placed sl @ the same price mark after price went down towards 1284 below supportline of rising wedge. Price again went up towards 1288.77, but our sl is safe till now. this second day of position and price again hovering below support line of wedge @ 1285. In Indian rupees, for mcx parallel price of entering the trade was something around 29680. CMP on MCX is 29570. SL is safe. So we can book little profit here & maintain sl cost to cost, i.e. 29680. Look @ below given chart of MCX gold hourly. 

This is the MCX hourly gold price chart. Again suggest you to book little profit and place sl ctc.

update 3 , 06.13 pm, 11/11/2017

while entering the gold short trade, we got chance to short it @ Rs 29680 MCX & 1289 dolors as shown in the chart. Yesterday close price was Rs 29471 & 1275 dolors. So friends, book full profit & exit. We got 200 rupees, that means Rs 20000 in single lot. enjoy it, Jay Shriram. 

crude upward breakouut

crude hourly

Tgt 48 dolor, enjoy.

gold & silver, looking bullish

comex gold weekly

weekly comex silver chart

     As shown in the gold chart, we can see that last candle created hammer. Same time price has taken support from trendline. From Decemer 2017 onwards, gold price is in upmove. ( I request you to see the chart very carefully to understand the analysis. ) In last 7 months it went up from 1125 dolor to 1300 high and corrected 3 times making higher lows. Just now, in last week, it corrected to 1230 around. You can see 1230 with the last hammer candle. PRICE RECOVERED SHARPLY FROM TRENDLINE, MADE HIGH LOW & CREATED HAMMER. 

   These higher lows made ascending triangle pattern. Looking at all these things, I strongly recommend positional buy on gold and silver. 

                                                fundamentals

   The primary driver of higher gold prices at this time appears to be the flattening of the longer-dated U.S. Treasury curve. This is likely to continue this week if U.S. economic data continues to come in weaker-than-expected and if Fed officials start to deliver more dovish commentary about the chances of an additional rate hike later in the year.

This week, investors will get the opportunity to react to data on Core Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Final GDP and Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Sandwiched between the reports will be a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday, June 27.

Pay attention to the movement in the Treasury yields. Lower yields will be bullish for gold. Rising yields will drive gold prices lower, but geopolitical concerns should prevent the market from collapsing.

Silver upward breakout

22/05/2017, 06.06 p.m.

comex hourly silver chart

     Just before few minutes, silver gave upward breakout on comex hourly chart. Resistance was placed at 17.38, on 21st day of May, price tried to break this resistance but failed, making falls breakout. but at the moment it again broke the resistance with good steam. Looking at the move and volume we can confidentally say that price can sustain above the resistance line. so trade accordingly, dont remain short in silver.

     Thanking you, Jay Shriram.

Final update, 22nd May 2017, 08.49 p.m

     we booked only 100 points profit and made exit because I dont like silver movement after breakout. It has lack of steam in it.

     Thank you, enjoy 3000 rupees, Jay shriram.

positional trade --- buy NG --- perfect case of double bottom reversal

19th May2017

Double Bottom Reversal chart pattern.

nymex hourly chart 

     Without any hesitation I am saying that Natural Gas price is about to breakout the Double Bottom Reversal chart pattern. In the morning I posted first image showing levels on twitter and google +. At that time I was suspicious about this chart pattern but finally price broke up from the descending triangle and cross R1 on upside and now it is knocking 3.269 mark for giving breakout.

     Buy it after breakout, targets are huge with the sl of triangle resistance line ( upper line ) which will work as support line as a rule of polarity.

     NG price made double bottom at 3.160 around. In the process it made descending triangle but successfully crossed it upward. Crossed resistance of 3.243 and now knocking final breakout line mark placed at 3.269. If it cross it and sustain above it, trend will reverse on upside. NG has habitual of volatile moves, we can expect big spike in the price.

     Thank you. 

Update 1, 22nd May 2017 

nymex hourly NG 

     Because of blessings of my blog readers, NG is up. analysis proves correct. Yes , I admit that there is something, may be contract change in US mkt, what may be reason, we made some money in that process.

     For mcx, I think NG will try to break 221 level, if it can, then it will enter in new trading zone. Lets see.

Update 2 , 22nd May 2017, 08.23 p.m

hourly NG nymex chart 

     NG is knocking final resistance of 3.432, if it cross this resistance, price on mcx can fly toward 221. currently price is trading at days high level. Rs 221 is upper edge of current trading range of NG. This is second update in single day for MR Gagan Jain.

     Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Inverse H & S on Copper hourly and 30 min chart

mcx copper hourly

     There is inverse Head & Shoulder pattern on mcx copper hourly chart. This is bullish pattern and sign of bullishness in the price. It accures on the bottom of the downtrend. Neckline is placed at 362, by after breakout, tgt is 369. currently price is trying to break neckline. Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Final update

     Finally it happened, took 8 days, some horror downmoves, not in good way at all. But finally gave profits. so good bye, thank you, Jay Shriram. post is closed.

very short term NG

06.00 p.m, 9 th May 2017

nymex NG hourly chart 

     Use it if you can. thank you, jay Shriram.

Head & Shoulder on comex hourly silver chart, very bearish.

     This is comex silver hourly chart & you can see Head & Shoulder is about to break neckline. This is very very bearish sign. Use it and earn profits. After breaking neckline, mcx price can go toward 37500 followed by 37000.  Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Update 1 , 08.07, 8th May

     This descending triangle looks more perfect. Target is same, 37500 followed by 37000 after downward breakout. Breakout level is same compare to H & S pattern neckline.

update 2, 12.45, 9th May

     This is beautiful downward breakout of descending triangle, expect price to hit 37500 followed by 37000 with the sl of 38600 for security purpose.

update final, 05.43 p.m., 10th May

Exit short position in silver at cmp 38126 as downward movement is decreasing. To avoid risk exit ctc.

short term ng

nymex ng hourly chart 

     Very short term chart reading, for intraday purpose only. dont take it very seriously 

update, 11.56, 8th May

mcx hourly NG chart 

     It even didnt touch our given resistance, came back to kiss resistance line of wedge. Very good. post closed.

NG, developing H & S pattern on weekly chart

nymex weekly ng chart

mcx weekly ng chart 

     Read this post very carefully, if you are NG trader. NG price is around very crucial point. You can see it on both weekly charts that, price is about to make Head & Shoulder pattern. First left shoulder, Head is already there. Last shoulder is in making. Yes I admit the fact that,'' there can be failure of the chart pattern." Price can go upward from Friday closing price as shown with upward red arrow. But in that situation there can be still chance of making last shoulder because there is no certain rule about height of shoulders. It may not be same in respect of height. One shoulder can more high or low than other. It should be lower than Head, that's all about this pattern in respect of height of shoulders. Neckline should be on same price mark is most important rule. Here in both charts we can see that," neckline is placed at 2.527 and 169 rupees. All 3 points of first shoulder and head is placed at mentioned price marks.

     Now we should look at the second head in making. If we look at first shoulder & Head's top and bottom, reversal of price is in 'V' shape recovery. While moving up & down price moved in vertical form. But look at the last shoulder's last 4 candles. These candles are bending down or consolidating. This action made me suspicious about possibility of Head & Shoulder is in making. 

     Now most important question is that," how can we earn profits from this chart reading ? how to use this info ?" Answer is simple, I wrote 2 arrows ( red ) in chart. If price will go in direction of southward moving arrow, it will go towards neckline. In that case, support will be low point of last 2 candles. 3.156 or Rs 203 & 3.010 or Rs 195. Breaking these 2 points will push the price directly toward 2.502 or  Rs 169 mark. If it will break this price mark downward then next target will be 1.593 or Rs 110.  Neckline of HS pattern is placed there. As it is weekly chart, it will take its time in weeks. and second point is that," after breaking neckline, price can return above neckline again. Showing falls failure of HS pattern. This is habit of this chart pattern. But don't be afraid, keep patience in that situation.  

     Another situation is exact opposite of this downward theory. Price can go upward as shown with the red arrow ( upward moving ). If this happens, next resistance will be 3.30, 3.34 or Rs 214, Rs 218. After crossing these 2 hurdles price can go directly towards 4.002 or Rs 265. If any how price break this mark upward then only sky is the limit for NG price.

     Dear Friends, read it very carefully, try to understand the situation of NG price movement, keep it mind that,'' it is weekly chart and not for short term use." Many little up and downs can be there. 

     Hope you find this article useful in taking your decisions. Thanking you, Jay Shriram.

NG is trying to breakout

NG is trying to breakout

nymex NG hourly chart 

     This is nymex Ng hourly chart. You can see, rising wedge and its downward breakout, red arrow tgt achived, as mentioned in last post abut NG. NOw after consolidation, price is trying to breakouut something like falling wedge. If it break trendline Northward, it can fly up. on mcx cmp is 208 around. 

    If failed to breakout this time, NG price can go down toward 202 and then return back towards 205 and will again try to breakout there. This is so because upper line is southward moving.

     Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Update final, 08.44 p.m, 5 th May 2017

     I booked my profits at 208.50 and made exit because NG price touched 16 times to resistance line of this wedge like thing. You can wait with trailing sl or ctc sl. Thanking you, Jay Shriram. post is closed.

lead, next support @ 136 followed by 132

Lead is moving towards 136 followed by 132

mcx lead daily chart 

mcx lead hourly chart

     As shown in daily chart of mcx lead, price is moving in downward channel from start of February till today. The channel is intact in these 3 months. Price fell from 165 to 136 making up and downs within this channel. After hitting low of Rs 136, it reverted back and make high of Rs 146 around. Expiry short covering helped it to touch the resistance line, but as soon as it entered in new contract, it gave up all the steam and tumbled down. Broke middle line of bollinger band downwards, which is bearish sign again.

     On hourly charts, It made a new resistance of Rs 146.80 mark. It created double top there. Now it is very difficult to cross it.

     Now support is placed at 136, which is prior low and can work as support now. Second point is that,' bollinger band support line is placed at 136 mark. But , as bollinger band is moving indicator, it can turn down, ones price hit 136 mark.

     As per wave count price should touch 132, sooner or latter. Trade accordingly, with less quantity, strict sl or trailing sl method. Protection of capital is must to remain in market.

     Thanking you, Jay Shriram. 

Comex Gold broke channel support, if it is moving toward 1240 ?

comex gold daily chart 

     As seen in the attached daily chart, gold broke channel support downwards. Same time price broke middle line of bollinger band. It can move toward 1240 mark. Try it , if you can. Thanking you, Jay Shriram.

update 1, hourly chart

     amazing to see that, price broke bollinger band support line. Yes , bollinger band is moving indicator, but it is very interesting to see price action live. It is more interesting thatn Bahubali 2.

Final update, 08.43 p.m. , 3 rd may 2017

     Book profits or use trailing sl method to protect your profits. I am closing this post now. Thank you, Jay Shriram.

NG, breakout rising wedge.

nymex hourly chart

     This is short term rising wedge pattern breakout, which is bearish to price. Use it , if you can.

update 1, 07.46 p.m, 1 st May 2017

     3.24 is prior low, which is working as a support. After breaking it price will tumble down.

final update, 09.16 p.m, 1 st may

     Book profit or use trailing sl method to protect profits. Thank you , Jay Shriram.

Nickel, breakout H & S pattern

nickel mcx weekly chart 

     This is weekly chart of Nickel, clearcut breakout of Head and Shoulder pattern can be seen here. Weekly candle closed below neck line at Rs 626, while neckline of H & S pattern is placed at Rs 640. Perfect case of bearish breakout.

     Next support is rs 552, which is prior low, where price got support in past. After that, final support is Rs 518, which is our targeted price.

     One should be cautious because this is weekly chart and take its time in weeks timeframe. One should kep this in mind and trade accordingly. Some up and downs will be there as usual.

     Nothing to say more about it. I will update this post with regular intervals. If you like this post, share it on facebook and other social media. I know you will not do this, but saying like this is a style of a good blogger.

     Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Gold

mcx gold hourly chart 

     Gold is not my favourite counter to trade with, but today it attract me toward itself. After opening gap up on 15 th March , gold went in to consolidation phase. It moved between 28400 to 29000 for 26 days. Yesterday gold gave upward breakout, crossing the hurdle of 28950 and closed above it, around 29200. 

     Now as a rule of polarity prior resistance of 28950 became support for the gold price, next support is placed at 28750 around, and third support is placed at 28600. While 28350 to 28400 is a final support.

     On the upside first tgt is 29800 followed by 30600. This is not intraday call but a positional one.

     Thank you for visiting my blog, to get regular updates, follow me on google+, twitter and subscribe by email. Its free always. Jay Shriram.

Update 1, 14th April 2017, 02.10 pm

mcx gold hourly chart

     You can see, price closed at 29418 yesterday. We gave call at 29200 around. Gold price consolidate little on 12th April and 13th April and break up on 13th April towards 29418. It closed on very positive note.

     Now support for short term is placed between 29270 and 29290. followed by 29100 and final support is placed at 28950.

     Maintain your longs with trailing sl system, do your trading carefully. Loosing capital is easily done but recovering it is very hard task to do.

     Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Update 2, 23rd April 2017

mcx gold hourly chart 

     Here is mcx gold attached chart. I draw new support and resistance levels for short term on it. Friday closing of gold on mcx was 29384, but on comex it closed higher at 1289 around.

     French elections, problem of Islamic refugees, ISIS, Turkey demands, Spain bankruptcy and North Korea, the list is endless. This can push up gold in coming days. Actually French  people's are fed up with pseudo secular governments and their policies about refugees from Syria. country has more than 7% population of these refugees. This group of refugees deny to mix with main stream and want to press their religious concepts in France. Intelligence report indicate riots after election results. On the other side, turkey is blackmailing EU, asking huge amount. It blackmail Europe that,' they will open up gates for refugees.' Spain is about to face bankruptcy. North Korea issue is not decreasing yet.

     Lets look at our way of trading, which is technical analysis. Rs 29550 is now resistance. It is prior spike high on hourly chart. After crossing it, price can move towards major resistance of 29800. If cross 29800, gold will enter in to medium term bullishness. On the downside 29240, 29200 are the supports. 29100 and the 28950 are the major supports. 

     So trade accordingly. Thanking you, Jay Shriram.

Final update, 26th April.

     We booked loss of 350 points yesterday. Our sl hit at 28900 mark. We did 2 trades in gold, got profit around 100 points in first trade and loss of 450 points in second trade. total loss 350 points, means 35000 rupees.

zinc, is it moving towards 170 ?

Zinc, in process of making descending triangle

Zinc mcx daily chart

     First of all, keep in mind that,' this is daily chart and take its time accordingly.' Many of us are habitual of 15 min, hourly chart to get instant results but here is daily chart posted.

     As seen in the chart, after making high around 204, zinc price turned downward, made low of 166 and turned upward and made new lower high of 196 around. After the high of 204, zinc price is made lower and lower highs, as seen in the attached chart.

     If we cover all candles from 204 high in triangle, there will be symmetrical triangle chart formation is in making. But we cant hold the position for such a long duration to get expected results. so we took price movement from second lower high of 198 marked at 13th Feb 2017 till yesterday.

     After drawn a triangle, there is descending triangle appeared on chart. To confirm it we used ABCD pattern and acknowledge that price touched 2 times to upperline and 2 times to the lower ( support line ) line. This is essential for to be a descending triangle.

     On the upside, resistance from channel resistance line ( descending line ) and prior high is placed at 186.50 around. this should be sl.

     Support line of this triangle is placed at 175.75, if zinc price break this, then it can touch 170 mark and after that 166 mark. Thats all, what can I read from this daily zinc chart. 

     Hope that, this post will help you in taking your descisions. If you like this article, please share it on facebook and other social media. Thank you for giving your precious time to read my blog, Jay Shriram.

update 1, 7th April, 12.30 am

mcx zinc daily chart

     As you can see in the chart, 6th april closing price is 175.95 and price made low of 175.05, closed on very negative note. Rule for descending triangle is that,' breakout should happen after 2/3 rd triangle space is captured by candles, but that rule was not followed by zinc price in this case. On 3rd april zinc price tried to breakout downwards breaching 175.80 price mark downwards but failed. A falls spike occures taking the price up to 181.75. after two trading days, today it comes back on right track. 

     Now we are using trailing stop loss method to lock profits. Next tgt is 170 followed by 166. Lets hope for good. Jay Shriram.

update 2, 7th apr, 12.37 pm

mcx zinc daily

     Beautiful breakout, patience paid us huge profits. We shorted it at 181 and holding the position patiently since last 1 month or more. Many up and downs were there. Price went up to 188, but we didnt shut down position. We were confident about our chart pattern. And here is the result. I feel this chart pattern is more beautiful than Taj Mahal.

Update 3, 12th April 2017, 11.45 am

mcx zinc daily chart

     Look at the daily mcx zinc chart, price broke S2 166 just before few minutes. Below 166 there will be panic situation for zinc, can face lower circuit. If somebody is caught in long position should place sl at 164 and wait for any pull back to exit long.

    We booked all profits for our short  position created around 181. Now this zinc post is closed.